不确定性缓冲下农业产业组织演化的逻辑与进路

The Logic and Approach of the Evolution of Agricultural Industrial Organization System on Uncertainty Buffering

培育、创新和完善农业产业组织体系是推进中国式农业现代化的重要支撑。引入不确定性缓冲视角,提出“不确定性冲击→缓冲策略选择→适应性选择与迭代”的农业产业组织演化分析框架,指出农业产业组织演化是在复杂不确定性下适应性选择与迭代的过程。实践表明,改革开放以来,为缓冲供需脱节、食品安全与动植物疫病、农产品消费升级与供应链安全等特定阶段的不确定性冲击,中国农业产业组织呈现出“小农经营→‘中介组织+农户’→准纵向一体化组织→农业产业化联合体”的演化路径,农业产业化联合体成为当前及未来中国农业产业组织演化的进路选择。应鼓励龙头企业引领建设农业产业化联合体,并通过一系列制度设计降低农业生产经营面临的不确定性风险。

Cultivating,innovating and improving the organizational system of agricultural industry is an important support for promot-ing the modernization of Chinese agriculture.This paper introduces the perspective of uncertainty buffering,and proposes an analyti-cal framework for the evolution of agricultural industrial organization of"uncertainty shock buffer strategy selection→adaptive se-lection and iteration",and points out that the evolution of agricultural industrial organization is a process of adaptive selection and it-eration under complex uncertainty.Practice shows that since the reform and opening up,in order to buffer the impact of uncertainty in specific stages such as the disconnect between supply and demand,food safety and animal and plant diseases,agricultural product consumption upgrading and supply chain risks,China's agricultural industrial organization has shown an evolution path of"small farmer operation→'intermediary organization+farmer'→quasi-vertical integration organization→agricultural industrialization consortium",and the agricultural industrialization consortium has become the approach choice for the evolution of China's agricultur-al industrial organization at present and in the future.Leading enterprises should be encouraged to lead the construction of agricultur-al industrialization complexes,and reduce the uncertainty risks faced by agricultural production and operation through a series of in-stitutional design.