黄河下游地区基本公共服务投入效率时空分异及影响因素

Spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of basic public service input efficiency in the lower reaches of the Yellow River region

基本公共服务投入效率对基本公共服务均等化及协调发展具有重要作用。本研究以黄河流域下游地区为案例区域,运用非期望产出超效率SBM模型、标准差椭圆模型、梯度提升树回归模型以及灰色GM(1,1)模型对基本公共服务投入效率的时空分异及其影响因素进行实证研究。结果表明:基本公共服务投入效率呈现出“东北—西南”格局,重心向东北偏移,其中山东段的评价值增长,而河南段下降;人口规模、产业经济和资源消耗是影响基本公共服务投入效率的主导要素,预测模型结果表明在未来时段多数地市的变化趋势比较平稳。

The efficiency of basic public service investment plays an important role in the equalization and coor-dinated development of basic public services.This study takes the lower reaches of the Yellow River Basin as a case study area,and empirically studies the spatiotemporal differentiation and influencing factors of basic public service investment efficiency using the unexpected output super efficiency SBM model,standard deviation ellipse model,gradient boosting tree regression model,and grey GM(1,1)model.The results show that:The efficiency of basic public service investment presents a“northeast southwest”pattern,with the center of gravity shifting towards the northeast.The evaluation value of the Shandong section increases,while that of the Henan section decreases;Population size,industrial economy,and resource consumption are the dominant factors affecting the efficiency of basic public service investment,and the prediction model results indicate that the trend of change in most cities in the future period is relatively stable.