数字经济对黄河流域城市外向型经济韧性的影响研究——兼论要素升级的中介效应

Research on the Impact of Digital Economy on the Resilience of the Export-oriented Economy in Cities in the Yellow River Basin:On the Mesomeric Effect of Factor Upgrading

数字经济是增强城市外向型经济韧性的重要动力,厘清其作用机制对落实黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略具有重要意义。理论探究发现,数字经济通过促进劳动力、资本和技术等要素升级强化城市外向型经济韧性。文章选取2008—2020年黄河流域81个地级市的面板数据,采用核心变量法测算黄河流域城市外向型经济韧性,并构建双重固定效应模型实证检验数字经济对黄河流域城市外向型经济韧性的影响及作用机制。实证结果表明:第一,数字经济显著增强黄河流域城市外向型经济韧性,该结论在经过一系列稳健性检验后依旧成立。第二,数字经济通过促进劳动力要素质量升级、资本要素质量升级和技术升级等机制增强黄河流域城市外向型经济韧性,且技术升级机制较劳动力与资本要素质量升级机制效用更明显。第三,地理区域位置、是否“一带一路”途经城市及区域资源禀赋会影响数字经济对黄河流域城市外向型经济韧性的提升作用。在上中游地区,数字经济对城市外向型经济韧性的提升作用显著,而下游不显著;数字经济对非“一带一路”途经城市外向型经济韧性促进作用显著,而“一带一路”途经城市不显著;数字经济对资源型城市促进作用显著,而非资源型城市外向型经济韧性不显著。为更好地应对外部环境的复杂变化,促进我国外向型经济稳健发展,应大力发展数字经济,增强数字经济的发动机作用。

Digital economy is an important driving force to enhance the resilience of urban export-oriented economy,and clarifying its mechanism is of great significance for the implementation of ecological protection and high-quality development strategy in the Yellow River Basin.Theoretical research finds that the digital economy strengthens the resilience of urban export-oriented economy by promoting the upgrading of labor,capital and technology.This article selects panel data from 81 prefecture-level cities in the Yellow River Basin from 2008 to 2020,uses the core variable method to measure the export-oriented economic resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin,and constructs a dual fixed-effect model to empirically test the impact and mechanism of digital economy on the resilience of outward-oriented economies in cities in the Yellow River Basin.The empirical results are as below.Firstly,the digital economy significantly enhances the resilience of the outward-oriented economy of cities in the Yellow River Basin,which is still true after a series of robustness tests.Secondly,the digital economy enhances the resilience of the export-oriented economy of cities in the Yellow River Basin by promoting labor upgrading,capital upgrading and technological upgrading,and the technology upgrading mechanism is more effective than the labor and capital upgrading mechanism.Thirdly,the location of geographical regions,whether the“Belt and Road”passes through cities,and regional resource endowments will affect the role of digital economy in enhancing the resilience of cities in the Yellow River Basin to the export-oriented economy.In the upper and middle reaches,the digital economy has a significant impact on enhancing the resilience of urban outward oriented economies,while it is not significant in the lower reaches;The digital economy plays a significant role in promoting the export-oriented economic resilience of cities not passing through the“the Belt and Road”,while the cities passing through the“the Belt and Road”are not significant;The digital economy has a significant promoting effect on resource-based cities,while the resilience of non resource-based cities towards outward oriented economies is not significant.In order to better cope with the complex changes in the external environment and promote the stable development of China’s export-oriented economy,we should vigorously develop the digital economy and enhance its engine role.