数字经济影响农村产业融合的机理研究——基于中国省域面板数据的实证研究

Research on the Mechanism of the Impact of Digital Economy on Rural Industry Integration:An Empirical Study Based on China’s Provincial Panel Data

基于2011—2021年中国省级面板数据,采用固定效应模型、面板门槛回归模型等实证检验数字经济对农村产业融合发展的影响及其非线性关系。研究发现:(1)数字经济显著促进了我国农村产业融合发展,该结论经过一系列稳健性检验、内生性处理后依然成立。(2)数字经济对农村产业融合发展的促进作用存在边际效应递减的非线性特征,资本积累水平、居民消费水平、高质量人力资本水平在这一促进作用中发挥门槛效应。(3)随着农村产业融合发展水平的提高,数字经济对农村产业融合发展的促进作用呈现出由弱逐渐变强再弱化的趋势,相较于西部地区,数字经济在东、中部地区对农村产业融合发展的促进作用较弱。为充分发挥数字经济促进农村产业融合发展的积极效应,需要在加快发展数字经济、推进数字乡村建设的同时,促进金融创新、缓解金融约束,推进共同富裕、提振消费信心,重视人才培养与引进、保障人才供给。

Based on China’s provincial panel data from 2011-2021,this paper empirically tests the impact of digital economy on rural industrial integration development and its nonlinear relationship by using fixed effect model,panel threshold regression model,etc.The findings are as below.Firstly,digital economy has significantly promoted the integrated development of rural industries in China,and this conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness tests and endogenous processing.Secondly,the promotion effect of digital economy on the integrated development has a non-linear characteristic of diminishing marginal effects.Regional capital stock,residents’consumption level and high-quality human capital play a threshold effect in their promotion effect.Lastly,with the improvement of the level of integrated development of rural industries,the promotion effect of the digital economy on it has shown a trend of gradually becoming stronger and then weakening.Compared to the western region,the digital economy has a weaker promoting effect on the integration and development of rural industries in the eastern and central regions.To fully leverage the positive effect of digital economy in promoting the integrated development of rural industries,it is necessary to accelerate the development of digital economy and promote the construction of digital countryside,while promoting financial innovation,easing financial constraints,promoting common prosperity,boosting consumer confidence,attaching importance to talent training and introduction,and ensuring talent supply.