上帝的骰子:概率论在事实认定中的作用

God's dice:The role of probability theory in fact-finding

将概率论运用于刑事审判中的事实认定的尝试已有百余年的历史,1968年美国加州最高法院在人民诉柯林斯案(Peoples v. Collins)中基于四个方面的理由对此做出否定回答。20世纪90年代DNA技术的发展给概率证据打开了通往法庭大门的钥匙。但除此之外,无论是先验概率、经验概率,还是贝叶斯定理,概率论在事实认定中发挥更大作用的努力遇到了各种各样的问题。因此,以概率推理为基础逻辑,将“审判智能决策”推广到事实认定领域的尝试注定不会成功。

The attempt to apply Probability Theory to fact-finding in criminal trials has continued for more than 100 years.In 1968,the Califomia Supreme Court gave a negative answer in People v.Collins based on four reasons.The development of DNA technology in the 1990s has made the court opening the door to the probabilistic evidence.But beyond that,no matter it is the prior probability,or empirical probability,or Bayes'theorem,the attempts to play a greater role in fact-finding have encountered various problems.Therefore,the attempt to extend"intelligent judicial decision making",which is based on the logic of probabilistic reasoning,to fact-finding is doomed to fail.