四川县域农业高质量发展水平测度及其自然-社会经济系统耦合

Measurement of high quality development level of county agriculture and the coupling of natural and socioeconomic systems in Sichuan Province

在农业高质量发展理论内涵分析基础上,从“自然环境”和“社会经济”两个维度构建农业高质量发展综合评价指标体系,并基于2000—2020年四川省183个县级行政单元的面板数据测度了各县域的农业高质量发展水平,探究了自然系统、社会经济系统和综合系统的时空演变规律。同时,改进管理学中的多要素权衡模型来计算自然-社会经济系统耦合协调程度,量化了农业高质量发展内部不同系统之间的耦合水平。研究结果表明:(1)四川省农业高质量发展综合指数先后经历了振荡期(2000—2011年)和迅速攀升期(2011—2020年),在此过程中,自然维度指数整体上比社会经济维度指数更高,但同时也表现出了更强的不稳定性;(2)农业高质量发展水平的高值区集中在成都平原及其周围丘陵区和川南少数区县,从两个高值中心向四周延伸,高质量水平逐渐下降,川西北高原农业高质量发展水平相较于广大平原和丘陵区域仍相对滞后;(3)在自然-社会经济系统间复杂的相互关系作用下,四川农业高质量发展实现了从低值不协调向低值协调,再到高值不协调的转变,不同时期的耦合不协调区域及其面临的农业高质量发展短板差异显著;(4)农业高质量发展的自然和社会经济指数之间存在复杂交错的相互作用关系,且这种关系在不同地貌类型间存在明显差异,在山地县表现得尤为突出。

Based on the analysis of the theoretical connotation of high⁃quality agricultural development,this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system of high⁃quality agricultural development from two dimensions of natural environment and social economy.The level of high⁃quality agricultural development of each county was measured using the panel data of 183 counties in Sichuan Province from 2000 to 2020.At the same time,the spatial and temporal evolution of the agricultural high quality level of the natural system,the socioeconomic system and the integrated system in these counties was explored.The trade⁃off model in management was improved to calculate the degree of coupling coordination of natural and socioeconomic systems,which quantified the coupling level between different subsystems in the process of highquality agricultural development.The results showed that:(1)The comprehensive index of high⁃quality agricultural development in Sichuan Province experienced a period of volatility(2000—2011)and a period of rapid growth(2011—2020).In this process,the natural dimension index was higher than the socio⁃economic dimension index on the whole,but at the same time,the former also showed stronger instability.(2)The high value of agricultural quality development level was concentrated in Chengdu Plain,its surrounding hilly areas and a few counties in southern Sichuan.From these two high⁃value centers to the periphery of the study area,the high quality level gradually declined.Compared with the vast plain and hilly areas,the high quality development level of northwest Sichuan Plateau was still relatively lagging behind.(3)Under the complex interaction between the natural and socio⁃economic system,the high⁃quality development of Sichuan agriculture realized the transformation from the low⁃value uncoordinated stage to the low⁃value uncoordinated stage,and then to the high⁃value uncoordinated stage.There were significant differences in the coupling uncoordinated regions during the aforementioned periods,and these regions were facing different shortcomings of high⁃quality agricultural development.(4)There was a complex interaction relationship between the natural and socio⁃economic indices of high⁃quality agricultural development.This relationship was significantly related to the terrain,especially in mountainous counties.