人口老龄化与货币政策有效性——基于商业银行海外资产配置视角

Population Aging and Monetary Policy Effectiveness:Based on the Perspective of Overseas Assets Allocation of Commercial Banks

选取省级面板数据,通过高频方法识别外生货币政策冲击,运用局部投影(LP)方法,从商业银行海外资产配置角度解释人口老龄化对货币政策有效性的影响。研究结果表明,人口老龄化背景下,国内储蓄上升、投资下降和自然利率下降,促使商业银行将多余储蓄配置到海外,削弱货币政策有效性。进一步利用面板数据优势,将全国分为东部、中部和西部三个区域,分析不同区域人口老龄化对货币政策有效性影响的异质性。本文结论为相关部门在应对人口老龄化对货币政策有效性影响时提供了新的思路。

Based on the provincial panel data,this paper first uses the high-frequency method to identify exogenous monetary policy shocks,and then applies the local projection(LP)method to explain the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of monetary policy from the perspective of overseas asset allocation of commercial banks.The results show that rising domestic savings,declining investment and falling natural interest rates under the background of population aging prompt commercial banks to allocate excess savings overseas,which weakens the effectiveness of monetary policy.Furthermore,taking advantage of the panel data,this paper divides the country into three regions,namely,eastern,central and western,to analyze the heterogeneity of the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of monetary policy.The conclusions of this paper provide new perspective for relevant departments in dealing with the impact of population aging on the effectiveness of monetary policy.