2010—2022年成都市青白江区恶性肿瘤死亡现况及Joinpoint回归分析

The current status and Joinpoint regression analysis of malignant tumor mortality in Qingbaijiang District of Chengdu City from 2010 to 2022

目的收集成都市青白江区2010—2022年恶性肿瘤死因监测数据,分析恶性肿瘤死亡现况及死亡率变化趋势。方法在中国疾病预防控制系统死因登记报告信息系统中,按户籍导出成都市青白江区死亡时间为2010年至2022年的恶性肿瘤数据。通过SPSS 19.0计算粗死亡率、中标死亡率、死亡顺位等指标,描述恶性肿瘤死亡现况,率的比较采用卡方检验。运用Joinpoint 4.8.0.1,选用“死亡率”模式计算平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)分析恶性肿瘤死亡变化趋势,AAPC的比较采用t检验。检验水准α=0.05。结果2010—2022年成都市青白江区户籍居民恶性肿瘤累计报告死亡12880例,粗死亡率236.40/10万,中标死亡率167.90/10万;男性中标死亡率高于于女性(χ^(2)=2077.877,P<0.001);造成成都市青白江区居民死亡的前5位恶性肿瘤分别是肺癌、食管癌、肝癌、胃癌和结直肠癌;2010—2022年成都市青白江区粗死亡率(AAPC=1.990%,P=0.112)和中标死亡率(AAPC=-1.145%,P=0.417)的差异均无统计学意义;男性和女性粗死亡率分别以每年1.633%(P=0.037)和1.577%(P=0.037)的速度上升。食管癌(AAPC=-3.131%,P=0.002)、肝癌(AAPC=-5.000%,P=0.001)、胃癌(AAPC=-7.179%,P<0.001)的中标死亡率均呈逐年下降趋势;肺癌和结直肠癌粗死亡率分别以4.970%(P=0.028)和5.128%(P=0.024)的速度上升。结论2010—2022年成都市青白江区恶性肿瘤死亡负担较重。提高居民健康素养水平和癌症早诊早治参与度是提高居民期望寿命的重要途径。

Objective To collect the monitoring data of death causes of malignant tumors in Qingbaijiang District of Chengdu City from 2010 to 2022,and to analyze the death status and the changing trend of mortality rate.Methods The malignant tumor data of Qingbaijiang District of Chengdu City with death time from 2010 to 2022 were derived from the Cause of Death Registration and Reporting Information System of China Disease Prevention and Control System according to household registration.The crude mortality rate,age-standardized mortality rate by Chinese standard population(ASMRC),death rank and other indicators were calculated by SPSS 19.0 to describe the current status of malignant tumors.Chi-square test was used to compare the rates.Average annual percent changes(AAPC)were calculated by Joinpoint 4.8.1 in mortality mode to analysis the changing trend of malignant tumor death.The comparison of AAPCs was conducted by t test,and the test level wasα=0.05.Results There were 12880 deaths from malignant tumors occurred among residents in Qingbaijiang District of Chengdu City from 2010 to 2022,with a crude mortality rate of 236.40/105and a ASMRC of 167.90/105.The ASMRC of males were higher than that of females(χ^(2)=2077.877,P<0.001).The top five malignant tumors causing death were lung cancer,esophageal cancer,liver cancer,gastric cancer and colorectal cancer in Qingbaijiang District of Chengdu City.There were no significant differences in the crude death rate(AAPC=1.990%,P=0.112)and ASMRC(AAPC=-1.145%,P=0.417)from 2010 to 2022.The crude death rates for males and females increased by 1.633%(P=0.037)and 1.577%(P=0.037)per year,respectively.The ASMRCs of esophageal cancer(AAPC=-3.131%,P=0.002),liver cancer(AAPC=-5.000%,P=0.001)and gastric cancer(AAPC=-7.179%,P<0.001)showed a downward trend.The crude mortality rates of lung cancer and colorectal cancer increased by 4.970%(P=0.028)and 5.128%(P=0.024)per year,respectively.Conclusions From 2010 to 2022,the death burden of malignant tumors in Qingbaijiang District of Chengdu City was heavy.Improving residents'health literacy level and early cancer diagnosis and treatment participation is an important way to improve resident′life expectancy.