新质生产力对产业布局的影响与区域锁定

The Influence of New Quality Productive Forces on Industrial Layout and Regional Lock

科技创新已经成为经济发展的支柱要素,对产业和区域经济发展的贡献不断提高,促使新质生产力应运而生。以2000—2022年为研究期,运用熵权法、莫兰指数和回归分析等方法研究新质生产力对区域产业布局的影响。结果显示,我国经济发展已经走出要素驱动发展阶段,自2017年开始全面聚焦产业技术的科技创新,全要素生产的质与量开始并进。然而,由于新质生产力对科技要素的高要求,致使其分布在产业和区域维度均显著不平衡,主要集聚在战略性新兴产业和未来产业,并呈现出区域锁定趋势,主要地区的核心地位在新质生产力时代可能会被进一步强化。在数字经济介入的情况下,新质生产力会成为虹吸效应加剧的介质,高端要素在产业和区域的高度集聚有助于我国高效突破“卡脖子”制约。新质生产力与传统生产力之间的巨大鸿沟也使二者共同支撑区域经济发展的局面会在较长时间内存在。

Technological innovation has become a pillar element of economic development,and its contribution to the development of industries and regional economies is increasing,prompting the emergence of new quality productive forces.This study uses entropy weight method,Moran index and regression analysis to study the effect of new quality productive forces on regional industrial distribution from 2000 to 2022.The results show that China has completed the factor-driven development stage,and since 2017,it has fully focused on scientific and technological innovation of industrial technology,and total factor productivity has begun to advance in quality.However,due to the high requirements of new quality productive forces on scientific and technological factors,its distribution in both industrial and regional dimensions is significantly unbalanced,mainly concentrated in strategic emerging industries and future industries,and showing a trend of regional lock.The core position of major regions may be further strengthened in the era of new quality productive forces.In the case of the intervention of the digital economy carrier,the new quality productive forces will become the medium of the intensified siphon effect,and the high concentration of high-end elements in the industry and region will help China to efficiently break through the“jam neck”constraints.On the other hand,the huge gap between the new quality productivity and the traditional productivity also makes the situation that the two jointly support the regional economic development will exist for a long time.