学龄人口结构变动与教育资源优化配置研究——以安徽省为例

Study on the Structural Changes in the School-Age Population and the Optimized Allocation of Educational Resources——Take Anhui Province as an Example

本研究利用安徽省1990—2020年四次人口普查数据,刻画了全省3-22周岁全学龄段人口数量规模、城乡结构、空间分布变动,并运用人口年龄移算模型,对2021—2040年间全学龄段人口发展趋势进行预测和研判。研究发现,学龄人口总量从1990年的2172.68万降到2020年的1404.8万,2040年将跌破1000万人;学前学龄人口从2020年开始出现下降,小学、初中、高中、大学学龄人口峰值依次为2023年、2026年、2029年、2032年;2026年城镇学龄人口将达到峰值934.43万后开始下降,且学龄人口向中心城市集聚的趋势会更加显著。在学龄人口变动过程中,教育资源将面临短缺与过剩交替出现、农村教育资源闲置、优质教育资源配置不均加剧、实际需求与供给失衡等突出问题。为此,要加强学龄人口变动监测,挖掘学龄人口领域新质生产力,通过改革办学模式、优化学校布局、盘活闲置资源、建立教师弹性退出机制等方式推进教育资源优化配置,以适应人口发展新趋势。

Using the data of four population censuses in Anhui Province from 1990 to 2020,this study further used the population age transfer model to forecast the development trend of the school-age population in Anhui Province from 2021 to 2040 on the basis of describing the changes in the size,urban and rural structure and spatial distribution of the 3-22 year old school-age population.The study found that the total school-age population will drop from 21.768 million in 1990 to 14.048 million in 2020,and will fall below 10 million in 2040.The pre-school population began to decline from 2020,and the peak of primary school population,middle school population,high school population,and university school population were in 2023,2026,2029,and 2032,respectively.In 2026,the urban school-age population will peak at 9.34 million and then decline,and the trend of school-age population gathering to central cities is more significant.In the process of school-age population change,the educational resources in Anhui Province will face some prominent problems,such as shortage and surplus alternately,idle rural educational resources,uneven allocation of high-quality educational resources,and imbalance between actual demand and supply.Therefore,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring of the change of school-age population,tap the new quality productivity in the field of school-age population,and promote the allocation of educational resources to adapt to the population situation by reforming the school-running mode,optimizing the layout of schools,utilizing idle resources,and establishing the flexible withdrawal mechanism of teachers.