通过气温对比法预测我国福寿螺潜在分布地区

Predicting Potential Distribution Areas of Apple Snail [Pomacea canaliculata(Lamarck,1819)] in China by Atmospheric Temperature Comparison Method

在对福寿螺[Pomacea canaliculata(Lamarck,1819)]分布地区进行调查的基础上,从福寿螺当前北缘分布地区的气温因子中,选取最小值作为预测参数,即年平均气温11.6℃、1月平均气温-2.6℃、1月平均日最高气温2.8℃、1月平均日最低气温-8℃,在我国分别绘制等温线,以这4条等温线南向限定的最小区域的北缘地区,作为我国福寿螺潜在北缘分布地区。结果表明,我国福寿螺潜在北缘分布地区将向北跨过黄河。我国福寿螺的潜在北缘分布地区自西向东依次为云南贡山独龙族怒族自治县、维西傈族自治县,四川九龙、康定、丹巴、金川、黑水及松潘,甘肃省的舟曲和成县,陕西凤县、千阳、永寿、淳化及白水,山西的稷山、襄汾、翼城、阳城及晋城,河南林州,河北武安、南河、鸡泽及清河,山东德州、临邑、济阳、高青、昌邑及平度。

The minimum values,that is,the annual average temperature of 11.6℃,the January average temperature of-2.6℃,the January average daily maximum temperature of 2.8℃ and the January average daily minimum temperature of-8℃ were selected as the prediction parameters from the atmospheric temperature data of the current northernmost distribution areas of apple snail [Pomacea canaliculata(Lamarck,1819)].With the prediction parameters four isotherms were drawn in China and the northern margin areas of the southing smallest part defined by the four isotherms were considered as the potential northernmost distribution areas of apple snail in China.The results showed that in China,the potential northernmost distribution areas of the apple snail should cross the Yellow River.The potential northern distribution areas of apple snail in China from west to east were Gongshan and Weixi in Yunnan Province,Jiulong,Kangding,Danba,Jinchuan,Heishui and Songpan in Sichuan Province,Zhouqu and Chengxian in Gansu Province,Fengxian,Qianyang,Yongshou,Chunhua and Baishui in Shaan'xi Province,Jishan,Xiangfen,Yicheng,Yangcheng and Jincheng in Shanxi Province,Linzhon in Henan Province,Wu'an,Nanhe,Jize and Qinghe in Hebei Province,Dezhou,Linyi,Jiyang,Gaoqing,Changyi and Pingdu in Shandong Province.