新质生产力与制造业产业链供应链韧性:理论分析与实证检验

New quality productivity and manufacturing industry chain supply chain resilience:theoretical analysis and empirical test

新质生产力能够实现技术革命性突破、生产要素创新性配置、产业深度转型升级,为提升制造业产业链供应链韧性注入新动能.在构建城市层面新质生产力综合测度体系与制造业产业链供应链韧性指标基础上,使用2003-2020年154个地级市的平衡面板数据,实证分析新质生产力对制造业产业链供应链韧性的直接效应与空间溢出效应.研究发现:基准回归结果与异质性检验结果表明,新质生产力能够显著增强制造业产业链供应链韧性,这一结论在不同区域、不同产业结构合理化程度的地区中存在差异;空间计量回归结果表明,新质生产力不仅能够直接增强本地区制造业产业链供应链韧性,且会通过空间溢出效应对邻近地区制造业产业链供应链韧性产生正向影响;进一步分析结果表明,国内价值链的战略替代性能够正向调节新质生产力的制造业产业链供应链韧性提升效应.为制造业产业链供应链突破传统发展模式,提高自主可控能力提供有益参考.

New productivity can achieve technological revolutionary breakthroughs,innovative allocation of production factors,and in-depth industrial transformation and upgrading,and inject new momentum into the resilience of the manufacturing industry chain supply chain.Based on the construction of a comprehensive measurement system of new productivity and the supply chain resilience index of manufacturing industry chain at the city level,this paper uses the balanced panel data of 154 prefecture-level cities from 2003 to 2020 to empirically analyze the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of new productivity on the supply chain resilience of manufacturing industry chain.The benchmark regression results and the heterogeneity test results show that the new productivity can significantly enhance the resilience of the supply chain of the manufacturing industry chain,which is different in different regions and regions with different degrees of rationalization of industrial structure.The results of spatial econometric regression show that new productivity can not only directly enhance the resilience of manufacturing industry chain supply chain in the region,but also have a positive impact on the resilience of manufacturing industry chain supply chain in neighboring regions through spatial spillover effect.Further analysis results show that the strategic substitutability of the domestic value chain can promote the resilience improvement effect of the manufacturing industry chain supply chain of new productivity.This study provides a useful reference for the manufacturing industry chain supply chain to break through the traditional development model and improve the ability of self-control.