生鲜产品基于时变需求与物流服务不确定性的供应链协调

Research on the Operational Model of Fresh Products Faced with Time-Varying Demand and Logistics Service Uncertainty

生鲜产品面临新鲜度变化产生的时变需求与物流服务不确定性的双重压力,供应链与物流服务高效协同以制定最优化的运营策略尤为关键.文章通过构建Stackelberg博弈模型,基于消费者时变效用函数分析了生鲜供应商与零售商的定价,保鲜策略以及物流不确定性对供应链的影响.探讨了集中决策与分散决策下生鲜供应链的协调问题.研究发现:从供应链整体看,当考虑物流不确定性时,供应链效率明显降低;从供应商看,当物流不确定性水平较低时,基准情形(不存在物流不确定性)下利润更大.而当物流不确定性超过某一阈值时,会带来正向需求的增加从而使得供应商利润更大;从零售商看,当产品销售期较短时,存在物流不确定时利润大于基准情形,当产品销售期较长时,基准情形利润更高;当收益共享比例越高时,生鲜供应链效率越大且不断逼近100%,说明收益共享契约能实现供应链协调.

Fresh products face the dual pressures of time-varying demand caused by freshness change and logistic service uncertainties.Efficient collaboration between the supply chain and logistic services is crucial for devising optimized operational strategies.This paper analyses the impacts of pricing,preservation strategy and logistics uncertainty of fresh-product supplier and retailer on the supply chain based on consumers'time-varying utility function by constructing a Stackelberg game model.The coordination issues in fresh supply chain under centralized and decentralized decision-making are explored.The study reveals that,from an overall supply chain perspective,considering logistic uncertainty leads to a significant decrease in supply chain efficiency.For supplier,in situations of lower logistic uncertainty,profit is greater under the baseline scenario(without logistic uncertainty);it leads to an increase in positive demand and thus to greater supplier profitability when logistics uncertainty exceeds a certain threshold.Regarding retailer,profit is higher in the presence of logistic uncertainty when the product has a shorter sales period,while in situations with a longer sales period,profit is higher under the baseline scenario.As the profit-sharing ratio increases,the efficiency of the fresh product supply chain improves and steadily approaches 100%,indicating that profit-sharing contracts can achieve supply chain coordination.