云南烤烟适宜种植区对气候变化的响应

Adaptation of Yunnan Flue-Cured Tobacco Suitable Planting Regions to Climate Change

为揭示云南省烤烟适宜种植区对气候变化的响应情况,以烤烟在云南省的实测分布数据以及相关环境变量数据为基础,运用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,研究历史时期云南省烤烟适宜种植区的分布特征,并分析未来气候变化条件下云南烤烟适宜种植区的变化情况。结果显示:(1)按环境变量对云南烤烟种植的贡献率大小排序,影响云南烤烟种植的主导环境变量依次为5月平均降水量、最热季节平均温度、土壤质地分类、土壤碳酸盐含量,4项的累计贡献率达到80.9%,且总体上气候变量对云南烤烟种植的影响高于土壤变量。(2)历史时期,云南烤烟适宜种植区主要分布在曲靖、昆明、楚雄、昭通、大理、保山、临沧、玉溪东部、红河中北部、文山西北部等地区,其余丽江南部、普洱中部亦有零星分布,适宜种植区的总面积达23.82×10^(6)hm^(2),占全省面积的60.44%。(3)在RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放路径下,烤烟适宜种植区面积呈现不同程度的增加趋势,分别增加到28.28×10^(6)hm^(2)和26.09×10^(6)hm^(2),分别占全省面积的71.76%和66.19%,总适宜种植区的质心(几何中心)沿偏东偏北方向迁移,且这种迁移主要是由高适宜种植区质心的迁移引起。

To reveal the response of flue-cured tobacco suitable planting regions in Yunnan Province to climate change,the distribution characteristics of flue-cured tobacco suitable planting regions in Yunnan Province under contemporary climate conditions were studied by using maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model,which was based on the measured distribution data of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan Province and the relevant environmental variable data.Furthermore,the change of suitable planting areas for flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan under future climate change conditions was analyzed.The results showed:(1)According to order of contribution of environmental variables to Yunnan flue-cured tobacco cultivation,the dominant environmental variables affecting Yunnan order of contribution of environmental variables to Yunnan flue-cured tobacco cultivation cultivation were,in order,the average precipitation in May,the average temperature in the hottest season,the classification of soil texture,and the content of soil carbonate.The cumulative contribution rate of such four items reached 80.9%,and the overall impact of climate variables on planting flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan is higher than that of soil variables.(2)In the current conditions,the suitable planting regions of flue-cured tobacco in Yunnan Province are mainly in Qujing,Kunming,Chuxiong,Zhaotong,Dali,Baoshan,Linchang,eastern Yuxi,northcentral Honghe,northwest Wenshan,also scattered in southern Lijiang and central Pu’er.The total suitable area is 23.82×10^(6)hm^(2),accounting for 60.44%of the land area of Yunnan province.(3)Under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios,the area of suitable planting areas of flue-cured tobacco showed an increasing trend in different degrees,increasing to 28.28×10^(6)hm^(2)and 26.09×10^(6)hm^(2),respectively,accounting for 71.76%and 66.19%of the total area of the province.The displacement of the center of mass(geometric center)of the total suitable planting area along the easterly-northerly direction,and this displacement was mainly caused by the migration of the centroids in the highly suitable planting regions.