人工智能背景下环境治理与社会保障的协同推进研究

Research on Collaborative Promotion of Environmental Protection and Social Security in the Context of Artificial Intelligence

在人口老龄化背景下,提升老年群体福利离不开社会保障与环境治理的协同推进。本文通过构建包含人工智能、老龄化、社会保障与环境治理支出的动态一般均衡模型,将税额分配内生化,分析老龄化冲击下社会保障与环境治理两项职能的关系,并讨论人工智能对社会保障与环境治理职能协同推进的“政策正外部性”。研究发现,在福利最大化条件下,老龄化加速使社会保障支出比例提高,环境治理支出比例下降,进而对产出、环境质量与居民福利造成不利影响。然而,人工智能可以在提升经济增长活力的前提下进一步实现社会保障与环境治理的协同推进,带来产出水平与环境质量齐升。具体来讲,人工智能除了实现资本替代劳动、提升生产效率外,还从动态视角对社会保障与环境治理的职能履行进行了时序上的重新分配:人工智能发展初期,智能生产过程的清洁化为大幅增加的社会保障支出提供了“绿色平台期”;人工智能发展后期,社会保障支出的长期持续增加使政策逐渐放松社会保障职能,加大环境治理支出,这种政策职能的时序重新分配实现了社会保障与环境治理的协同推进。本文提供了老龄化背景下解决政府多项公共服务职能冲突的新视角,对于政府如何利用人工智能发展实现环境治理与社会保障的协同共进具有重要的政策启示。

The superposition of the effects of economic policies and non-economic policies may lead to the fallacy of synthesis,which deviates from the overall policy goal.The fallacy of synthesis of economic policies and non-economic policies in the context of aging stems from the coexistence of “getting old before getting rich”and“controlling pollution before getting rich”in China.Aging puts forward higher requirements for social security expenditures.With the advancement of the construction of beautiful China and the practical needs of the elderly,environmental governance expenditures need to be guaranteed.How to realize the coordinated promotion of environmental governance and social security through the development of artificial intelligence(Al)is the core issue of this paper.Reviewing historical data,this paper finds that against the background of aging,social security,and environmental governance have not formed a coordinated promotion trend,and further transmission leads to a double decline in economic environmental quality and output,which damages social welfare.By establishing static and dynamic general equilibrium models,this paper explores the feasible path of developing Al to realize the collaborative promotion of social security and environmental governance.The static model analysis shows that even under the model scenario of maximizing social welfare,the optimal policy choice is still to relax the intensity of environmental governance to meet the real needs of economic growth and social security to the greatest extent.The dynamic model shows that Al can promote the coordinated promotion of social security and environmental governance in the aging era.Specifically,at the early stages of AI development,the cleaner production process enables policies to appropriately relax environmental governance functions without damaging environmental quality,providing a“green plateau”for a substantial increase in social security expenditures.In the later period of the development of AI,the multi-period continuous increase of social security expenditures enables the policy to gradually relax the social security function and increase the environmental governance expenditures.The results of this study show that the development of AI can realize the coordinated promotion of social security and environmental governance in the aging era,and simultaneously improve output,environmental quality,and welfare level in the long run.This study believes that due to the heterogeneity of regional residents'preferences,it is equally important to distinguish different regions,urban population aging process,and public heterogeneous demands for environmental quality,and to predict the turning point of the change in the sequence of policy priorities.The main innovation of this study is to simulate the dynamic path of tax allocation and propose to use the temporal reallocation of fiscal functions to solve the problem of collaborative promotion of social security and environmental governance from the structural perspective.