工业机器人应用与OFDI模式下的对外产业转移——兼论缓解产业链“二元悖论”的冲击

Robot Adoption and Outward Industrial Transfer in OFDI Patterns:A Discussion on the Impact of“Binary Paradox” in Industrial Chains

维护产业链安全稳定是构建新发展格局的基础。面对日益攀升的对外产业转移压力,中国有必要从新一轮科技革命和产业变革中寻求应对方略及全球经验。本文在理论分析的基础上,采用121个母国和186个东道国的国别—行业数据,实证考察工业机器人应用对产业转移的影响和作用渠道,并进一步讨论工业机器人应用对产业链“二元悖论”的影响。研究发现,工业机器人应用显著抑制了对外产业转移。究其作用机制,工业机器人应用的对外产业转移抑制作用既源于降低相对工资、增加出口替代、加剧利益博弈等拉力渠道,也源于提升相对产能和增加行业竞争等推力渠道,且数值模拟的结果表明,拉力作用明显高于推力作用,拉力渠道中相对工资渠道占据主导作用。进一步分析发现,工业机器人应用在抑制对外产业转移的同时,有助于提高产业影响力,降低产业脆弱性,可以在一定程度上缓解产业链“二元悖论”的冲击,这再次彰显了工业机器人应用对于维护产业链安全稳定、构建新发展格局的重要意义。

Ensuring the stability of the industrial chain forms the bedrock of China's pursuit of the“dual circulation”development paradigm.Confronted with mounting pressures of outward industrial transfer,China finds it imperative to explore fresh approaches and corroborating global evidence arising from the latest wave of technological revolution and industrial transformation.This paper builds a theoretical framework and provides evidence on the impact and pathways of robot adoption on outward industrial transfer,utilizing comprehensive country-industry data from 121 home countries and 186 host countries from 2000 to 2015.The empirical estimations show that robot adoption exerts a substantial suppressive effect on both the absolute and relative scale of outward industrial transfer.This suppression is driven by pulling forces,such as reduced relative wages,increased export substitution,and intensified game for benefits,as well as pushing forces,including enhanced industry capacity and heightened industrial competition.The pulling forces exhibit a more pronounced influence compared to the pushing forces.Robot adoption not only effectively limits outward industrial transfer but also strengthens its influence and reduces fragility,ultimately resolving the“binary paradox”,emphasizing its vital role in ensuring industrial chain security and stability,and the advancement of the“dual circulation”development paradigm in China.At the theoretical level,this paper seeks to elucidate the mechanisms through which the application of robots influences the outward transfer of industries.It identifies both the pulling and pushing effects exerted by robotic adoption on industrial transfer.Using numerical simulations and counterfactual comparisons,this paper evaluates the relative strength of these forces.Additionally,it investigates the impact on the influence and vulnerability of the industrial chain,rethinking the“dual paradox”of industrial chains in the era of artificial intelligence(Al).At the policy level,this paper provides universal and practical conclusions regarding the relationship between Al and outward industrial transfer.It also assists China in rationally adjusting and optimizing its industrial policies,including actively implementing the“AI plus”action plan,offering crucial references for managing industrial chain risks and enhancing industrial chain resilience.Our findings have strong policy implications.In terms of fiscal support,this paper finds that robot application is an effective means to inhibit outward industrial transfer and helps balance industry influence and vulnerability.Therefore,it is essential to accelerate the integration of Al with both conventional and new industries,promote“AI plus”initiatives,and enhance the endogenous driving force of domestic circulation.In terms of the application strategy,this paper finds that robot adoption not only has a pulling effect,keeping the industrial chain within the home country,but also a pushing effect,promoting outward industrial transfer.Therefore,differentiated strategies should be adopted for enterprises in different regions to enhance the pulling effect and reduce the pushing effect.In terms of implementation,this paper finds that the inhibitory effect of robot adoption on outward industrial transfer increases the industrial chain's influence and reduces its vulnerability.Therefore,the government should encourage related industries to form clusters in specific regions,strengthen inter-enterprise cooperation,facilitate the aggregation and sharing of robot application technologies,and enhance the resilience of the economic“external cycle”.