驾驭开放?--开放调节机制与东亚“中等收入陷阱”

Governing Openness?Openness Adjustment Mechanism and"Middle-Income Trap"in East Asia

“中等收入陷阱”的本质是中等收入国家的产业结构升级受阻与收入差距相对扩大,最终表现为人均国民收入增长滞缓。对外开放是东亚经济起飞的必经之路,但对于进入中等收入阶段的东亚经济体而言,经济开放又意味着巨大的产业升级与社会分配压力。基于此,东亚经济体能否跨越“中等收入陷阱”,很大程度上取决于其在进入中等收入阶段后是否建立起有效的开放调节机制。开放调节机制泛指在经济开放条件下,东亚经济体调整生产要素结构的一系列政策措施合集,通常以产业发展政策和社会分配政策的形态出现。开放调节机制分为两大类型:侧重于培育与转化劣势要素的进取型调节机制,与侧重于加固和汲取优势要素的保守型调节机制。确立进取型调节机制的经济体更易于跨越“中等收入陷阱”,而形成保守型调节机制的经济体陷入陷阱的可能性更大。上述分析框架在韩国和泰国两个东亚案例中得到充分检验。

The"middle-income trap"results when a middle-income country experiencesfailure of industrial structure upgrading and continuous expansion of income gap,which ultimately leads to sluggish growth in Gross National Income(GNI)per capita.Maintaining an open economy is a necessary condition for economic takeoff in East Asia,but for East Asian economies that have achieved middle income status,an open economy brings with it significant pressure in industrial upgrading and with respect to social welfare.As such,whether East Asian economies can overcome the"middleincome trap"largely depends on whether they establish an effective openness adjustment mechanism once they achieve middle-income status.Openness adjustment mechanism refers to the policy measures that East Asian economies use to adjust the structure of production factors under conditions of economic openness,usually taking the form of industrial development policies and social welfare policies.These in turn are divided into two types:a Progressive Mechanism that focuses on addressing and transforming disadvantageous factors within the economy and a Conservative Mechanism that aims at strengthening and better exploiting comparative advantages.Economies that establish the former one are more likely to overcome the"middle-income trap,"while those that develop the latter one are more likely to fall into the trap.The article systematically tests this analytical framework considering the two East Asian cases of South Korea and Thailand.