改革意愿、议价能力与国际投资争端解决机制改革的路径选择

Willingness to Reform,Bargaining Power and Path Selection in Evolving International Investment Dispute Settlement Mechanisms

国家经济安全超越经贸利益动机,推动了国家间展开新一轮的规则博弈。国际投资争端解决机制从偏向投资者保护向东道国监管权回摆,但国家(地区)参与制度改革的路径选择及其成因之问仍待回答。基于全球治理视角,文章提出以“改革意愿-议价能力-制度改革”为核心的分阶段解释框架,并发现基于国内主要行为体互动的改革意愿和基于国家间力量对比的议价能力是影响一方国际投资争端解决机制改革路径选择的关键变量。文章将路径选择按改革程度划分为渐进式改制、激进式转制和重构式建制三种类型,并分别选取美国主导的《美国-墨西哥-加拿大协定》、欧盟主导的《综合经济与贸易协定》和巴西主导的《合作与促进投资协定》为案例,对成员方制度策略选择落实到国际制度的改革和演进上的影响机制进行验证探讨。在新发展格局下,中国要更加主动对接高标准国际经贸规则,积极推进海外利益保护机制创新,为兼顾国家政策自主权与增强投资者信心提供制度保障,推动全球投资治理向更有效方向发展。

National economic security,surpassing mere trade or economic interests,has driven new waves of rule-making competition among states.International investment dispute settlement mechanisms are shifting from favoring investor protection back to favoring the regulatory rights of host countries.While so,the choices that states(regions)may take vis-d-vis participation in institutional reforms remain to be determined.Adopting a global governance perspective,this article proposes a temporal explanatory framework centered on"willingness to reform-bargaining power-institutional reform,"and finds that the key variables influencing a party's choice of reform path for international investment dispute settlement mechanisms include:(1)willingness to reform based on interactions among major domestic actors;and(2)bargaining power based on the balance of power among countries.The article categorizes path choices into three types based on the degree of reform:incremental reform,radical reform and disruptive reform.It then selects the US-led"United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement,"the EU-led"Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement,"and the Brazil-led"Cooperation and Facilitation Investment Agreement"as case studies to examine and validate the mechanisms through which member states'strategic choices impact the reform and evolution of international systems.Given the new developmental environment,China should proactively align with highstandard international trade and economic rules,actively promote innovation in mechanisms that protect overseas interests,and provide institutional guarantees that balance national policy autonomy with enhanced investor confidence,thereby advancing good and effective governance in global investments.