中国南海天然气水合物资源产业化发展面临的风险与挑战

Risks and challenges of the industrial development of methane hydrate resources in the South China Sea

由于中国南海天然气水合物的资源量预测高达800×10^(8)t油当量,国家正在鼓励推进其产业化发展;这与国外对天然气水合物资源的理论研究以及投入资金逐渐减少的情况恰恰相反。基于国内外研究天然气水合物的热情差异大,以及当前推进中国南海天然气水合物资源产业化发展面临的风险和挑战等问题,结合全球和中国南海天然气水合物资源潜力的最新评价结果,对比分析了国内外学者对天然气水合物资源潜力评价与认识的差异及其原因。最新评价结果表明,全球天然气水合物的可采资源量模拟结果的众数值为300×10^(8)t油当量、平均值为680×10^(8)t油当量,中国南海天然气水合物可采资源量模拟结果的众数值为10×10^(8)t油当量、平均值为26×10^(8)t油当量,其平均值不到全球和中国南海常规油气资源总量的5%和20%。由此可见,中国南海800×10^(8)t油当量的天然气水合物资源潜力并不是其现实可采资源量,而是可采资源量的30~80倍,不能用于指导生产和发展战略研究。有关天然气水合物资源量的概念和表征方法不统一是导致对其发展前景认识不同的根本原因之一。当前条件下推动中国南海天然气水合物资源产业化发展面临着可采资源量规模小、关键技术不成熟、市场竞争力较弱、商业投资风险大以及大规模发展与国家"双碳"目标不协调5方面的风险和挑战。因此,加快发展中国南海天然气水合物资源产业化需要深化4方面研究:提升科技水平,增加可采资源量;降低开采成本,拓展有效资源范围;深化地质条件评价,厘清资源分布特征;联合多种油气资源地质调查,提高综合开发成效。随着科技进步,天然气水合物资源势必将得到大规模开发利用,相关研究与探索应当得到支持和鼓励。

Due to the estimated reserves of natural gas hydrates in the South China Sea reaching up to 800×10^(8)t oil equivalent,the Chinese government is actively encouraging the industrialization of these resources.This contrasts sharply with the decreasing theoretical research and financial investment in natural gas hydrates by foreign countries.Given the significant disparity in enthusiasm for natural gas hydrate research between China and other countries,as well as the risks and challenges associated with advancing the industrial development of natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea,this study integrates the latest global and South China Sea resource potential assessments.A comparative analysis is conducted on the differences in resource potential evaluations and perceptions between domestic and international scholars,and the underlying reasons for these differences.The latest evaluation results indicate that the global recoverable resources of natural gas hydrates have a mode value of 300×10^(8)t oil equivalent and an average value of 680×10^(8)t oil equivalent.For the South China Sea,the mode value of recoverable natural gas hydrate resources is 10×10^(8)t of oil equivalent,and the average value is 26×10^(8)t oil equivalent.The average value of recoverable resources in the South China Sea is less than 5%and 20%of the total conventional oil and gas resources globally and in the South China Sea,respectively.Thus,the estimated 800×10^(8)tons of oil equivalent in the South China Sea does not represent the actual recoverable resources but rather 30 to 80 times greater,which cannot be used for production guidance and strategic development research.The lack of uniformity in the concept and characterization methods of natural gas hydrate resources is one of the fundamental reasons for differences in understanding their development prospects.The current promotion of industrializing natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea faces risks and challenges in five aspects:small scale of recoverable resources,immature key technologies,weak market competitiveness,high commercial investment risks,and inconsistency with the national"dual-carbon"goals for large-scale development.Therefore,accelerating the industrialization of natural gas hydrate resources in the South China Sea requires in-depth research in four aspects:enhancing technological capabilities to increase recoverable resources,reducing extraction costs to expand the effective resource range,deepening geological assessments to clarify resource distribution characteristics,and conducting comprehensive geological surveys of various oil and gas resources to improve integrated development efficiency.With technological progress,natural gas hydrate resources are bound to be developed and utilized on a large scale,thus continued support and encouragement for relevant research and exploration are necessary.