对俄原油“限价令”的发展与未来预测--基于网络演化博弈的研究

Development and Forecast of Oil Cap Policy for Russian--An Analysis Based on Network Evolutionary Gaming

以欧盟及七国集团(G7)对俄原油“限价令”发展及未来政策的影响预测为研究内容,建立了一个微观企业主体选择购买俄罗斯原油或非俄罗斯原油的网络演化模型,用于解释俄罗斯原油价差、制裁成本的综合影响。结果发现,对俄原油“限价令”在短期内影响较明显,但当时间拉长到15个月时影响基本消失。未来若西方国家采取进一步限价或增加制裁金额处罚的措施,对俄罗斯原油出口影响有限,而加强监管等举措有可能造成更大影响。

Based on the prediction of the impact of the EU and the Group of Seven(G7)on the development and future policies of the Russian crude oil"price limit order",this paper establishes a network evolution model of microenterprise entities choosing to buy Russian crude oil or non-Russian crude oil to explain the comprehensive impact of Russian crude oil price spreads and sanction costs.The study found that the short-term impact on the Russian crude oil price limit policy is more obvious,but disappears when the timeframe is extended to 15 months.Predicting the future,the impact on Russian crude oil exports is limited,even if Western countries further limit the price or increase the amount of sanctions.However,measurement such as strengthening supervision may have a greater impact.