“一带一路”产业链现代化的测度研究——兼论“以路强链”的启示及中国因应

Research on the Measurement of the Modernization of the“Belt and Road”Industrial Chain-On the Enlightenment of“Strengthening the Chain with Roads”and China’s Response

提升“一带一路”产业链现代化水平是推进高质量共建“一带一路”的重要举措和必然要求。本文在运用Vague集方法对“一带一路”产业链现代化水平评价的基础上,采用Dagum基尼系数、Kernel密度估计以及空间Markov链探究“一带一路”产业链现代化的空间分异与动态演进。结果表明:2015—2022年,“一带一路”产业链现代化水平整体呈上升趋势;从“一带一路”六大经济走廊产业链现代化水平提升幅度来看,中国—中南半岛经济走廊、新亚欧大陆桥经济走廊提升幅度相对较大;“一带一路”产业链现代化水平的区域差异主要来源于区域间差异且呈扩大态势;“一带一路”产业链现代化水平具有俱乐部收敛的特点,六大经济走廊合作框架显著增强了“一带一路”产业链现代化水平收敛俱乐部之间的空间溢出效应,不仅助益于提升一国的产业链现代化向更高水平发展的概率,还降低了一国的产业链现代化向低水平转变的概率。

Improving the modernization level of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain is an important measure and an inevitable requirement to promote high-quality co-construction of the“Belt and Road”.Based on the evaluation of the modernization level of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain by using Vague set method,this paper uses Dagum Gini coefficient,Kernel density estimation and spatial Markov chain to explore the spatial differentiation and dynamic evolution of the modernization of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain.The results show that from 2015 to 2022,the modernization level of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain is not high as a whole,but is on the rise.From the perspective of the modernization level of the industrial chain of the six major economic corridors of the“Belt and Road”,the economic corridor of the New Eurasian Continental Bridge increases the modernization of the industrial chain more than the others.The regional differences in the modernization level of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain mainly come from regional differences and are expanding.The modernization level of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain has the characteristic of club convergence.The cooperation framework of the six economic corridors has significantly enhanced the spatial spillover effect between the convergence clubs of the“Belt and Road”industrial chain modernization level,which not only helps to improve the probability of the transformation of a country’s industrial chain modernization to a higher level,but also reduces the probability of the transformation of the industrial chain modernization to lower levels.