基于Caprini风险评估量表构建重症监护病房患者深静脉血栓形成的预测模型

Co nstructing a predictive model for deep vein thrombosis in intensive care unit patients based on the Caprini risk assessment scale

目的 基于Caprini风险评估量表构建重症监护病房患者深静脉血栓形成的预测模型。方法 收集2020年1月至2022年12月362例重症患者的临床资料,根据是否发生深静脉血栓,分为深静脉血栓组和对照组。比较两组患者临床特征和Caprini风险评估量表评分差异,分析深静脉血栓形成的相关危险因素并构建预测模型。结果 两组患者糖尿病、Caprini风险评估量表评分和外科手术率比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistics回归分析显示,糖尿病、外科手术和Caprini评分≥5是重症患者并发深静脉血栓的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。将训练集和验证集数据代入构建的预测模型,训练集ROC曲线下面积为0.768,验证集ROC曲线下面积为0.870,验证集里对模型进行拟合优度检验(χ^(2)=4.856,P=0.773),可信度较好。结论 基于Caprini风险评估量表构建的预测模型对重症监护病房患者深静脉血栓形成具有较好的预测价值和可信度。

Objective To construct a prediction model of deep vein thrombosis in ICU patients based on the Caprini risk assessment scale.Methods From January 2020 to December 2022,362 critically ill patients were retrospectively collected.According to whether deep vein thrombosis occurred or not,the patients were divided into the deep vein thrombosis group and the control group.The clinical characteristics and the Caprini risk assessment scale score between the two groups were compared,the risk factors of deep vein thrombosis were analyzed,and a prediction model according to the relevant risk factors was built.Results There were significant differences in diabetes,Caprini risk assessment scale score and surgical operation rate between the two groups(P<0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes,surgery and Caprini score≥5 were independent risk factors for deep vein thrombosis in critically ill patients(P<0.05).Substituting the training and validation set data into the constructed predictive model.The area under the ROC curve of the training set was 0.768,and the area under the ROC curve of the validation set was 0.870.In the validation set,the model was subjected to the Hosmer Limeshow Goodness of Fit Test,with a chi square value of 4.856 and a P-value of 0.773,indicating that the model had good reliability.Conclusion The prediction model based on the Caprini risk assessment scale has good predictive value and reliability for deep vein thrombosis in ICU patients.