兰州市大学生艾滋病检测意愿影响因素预测分析

Predictive Analysis of Influencing Factors on AIDS Testing Willingness of College Students in Lanzhou City

目的通过决策树模型分析预测兰州市大学生艾滋病检测意愿的影响因素,并对预测结果进行评价。方法使用便利抽样对兰州市8所高校大学生进行线上匿名问卷调查,发放问卷5846份,回收有效问卷5276份,有效问卷率90.25%。结果单因素分析结果显示,男生的愿检率高于女生(χ^(2)=5.16,P=0.023),受教育率低于女生(χ^(2)=27.85,P<0.001);本省大学生的愿检率高于外省及外籍的大学生(χ^(2)=11.77,P=0.001),受教育率低于外省及外籍的大学生(χ^(2)=18.30,P<0.001);研究生年级的大学生愿检率最高(χ^(2)=26.42,P<0.001),三年级大学生的受教育率最高(χ^(2)=148.93,P<0.001);医学类高校的大学生愿检率高于非医学类高校的大学生(χ^(2)=67.48,P<0.001),受教育率也高于非医学类高校的大学生(χ^(2)=225.61,P<0.001);接受过艾滋病教育的大学生愿检率高于未接受过的大学生(χ^(2)=123.79,P<0.001);未发生过性行为的大学生愿检率高于发生过性行为的大学生(χ^(2)=3.37,P=0.066);知晓艾滋病基本知识的大学生愿检率高于不知晓的大学生(χ^(2)=128.02,P<0.001),受教育率也高于不知晓的大学生(χ^(2)=888.95,P<0.001)。决策树模型预测结果显示:艾滋病知晓情况、户籍、年级是大学生艾滋病检测意愿的主要影响因素;对决策树模型进行效果评价,结果显示决策树模型的准确率为91.51%,精确度为91.63%,敏感度为99.83%,F1值为0.99,预测效果优秀。结论应加强对低年级、不知晓艾滋病知识、外省及外籍大学生群体的艾滋病检测,同时也应加强艾滋病检测在大学生中的推广应用,及时发现艾滋病感染者。

Objective To analyze and predict the influence factors of college students′willingness to test for AIDS in Lanzhou city by decision tree model,and to evaluate the prediction results.Methods An anonymous online questionnaire survey was conducted among students from 8 college in Lanzhou by convenience sampling.Totally,5846 questionnaires were distributed and 5276 valid questionnaires were collected,with an effective questionnaire rate of 90.25%.Results Univariate analysis showed that the male students were more willing to be tested than the female students(χ^(2)=5.16,P=0.023),and were less likely to be educated than the female students(χ^(2)=27.85,P<0.001).The willingness rate of college students in Gansu province is higher than that of college students from other provinces and foreign countries.(χ^(2)=11.77,P=0.001)Meanwhile,the education rate of college students in Gansu province was lower than that of college students from other provinces and foreign countries(χ^(2)=18.30,P<0.001).The graduate students had the highest willingness rate(χ^(2)=26.42,P<0.001),and the junior college students had the highest education rate(χ^(2)=148.17,P<0.001).The percentage of medical college students willing to be tested was higher than that of non-medical college students(χ^(2)=67.48,P<0.001),and the education rate of medical college students was also higher than that of non-medical college students(χ^(2)=225.61,P<0.001).Students who received AIDS education were more willing to be tested than those who did not(χ^(2)=123.79,P<0.001).The percentage of college students who had never had sex was higher than those who had(χ^(2)=3.37,P=0.066).College students who knew the basic knowledge of AIDS were more willing to be tested than those who did not(χ^(2)=128.02,P<0.001),and their education rate is also higher(χ^(2)=888.95,P<0.001).The prediction results of decision tree model showed that AIDS awareness,household registration and grade are the main influence factors of AIDS testing intention of college students.It turned out that the accuracy of decision tree model was 91.51%,precision was 91.63%,sensitivity was 99.83%,F1 value was 0.99,and the prediction effect was excellent.Conclusion AIDS testing should be strengthened for students in lower grades,those who do not know AIDS knowledge,and students from other provinces and foreign countries.At the same time,AIDS testing should be promoted and applied in college students to detect AIDS patients in time.