全球价值链参与度对中国国际收支的传导——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的动态识别

The Influence Mechanism of Global Value Chain Participation on China's Balance of Payments--Dynamic Identification Based on SV-TVP-VAR Model

全球价值链参与度,已成为影响一国国际收支状况的重要因素。本文利用中国月度数据,基于SV-TVP-VAR模型探究全球价值链参与度对中国国际收支的影响,主要有以下发现。(1)全球价值链参与度的提高,会增加经常项目余额和非储备性质金融项目余额,并存在如下传导机制:全球价值链参与度→贸易顺差→通货膨胀→经常账户余额,全球价值链参与度→金融发展水平→实际使用外资→非储备性质金融账户余额。(2)全球价值链参与度对非储备性质金融项目的冲击效应,比对经常项目的冲击效应消失得更快;全球价值链参与度对经常项目的影响,比对非储备性质金融项目的影响,会更快地达到稳态水平。(3)全球价值链参与度对经常账户和非储备性质金融项目的冲击具有明显的时变特征,且全球价值链参与度与国际收支之间的关联性在不同事件下依然稳定地存在。

The global value chain has become an important factor affecting a country's balance of payments. Using China's monthly payments data, this paper explores the impact of global value chain participation on the nation's balance of payments. The study makes use of the SV-TVP-VAR model and its main findings are:(1) The increase in global value chain participation will increase the balance of the current account and the balance of non-reserve financial items. There are the following transmission mechanisms: global value chain participation→ trade surplus →inflation → balance of current account, global value chain → financial development level→ foreign capital → balance of non-reserve financial account.(2) The impact of the global value chain participation on non-reserve financial items disappears faster than the impact on the current account and the impact of the global value chain participation on the current account reaches the steady-state level faster than the impact of non-reserve financial items.(3) The effects of the global value chain participation on the current account and non-reserve financial items have obvious time-varying characteristics;and linkages between global value chain participation and the balance of payments would still exist stably under different events.