城市会展业与物流业耦合协调发展测评及驱动因素研究

Evaluation and Driving Factor Study of Coupling and Coordinated Development of Urban Convention&Exhibition Industry and Logistics Industry

会展业与物流业耦合协调发展是评估我国物流业与会展业高质量发展的题中之义。本文选取城市会展业与物流业发展相关数据,采用综合发展指数与耦合协调度模型,构建城市会展业与物流业耦合发展水平评价指标体系,开展会展业与物流业耦合协调度测评,再用空间杜宾模型检验耦合协调度的驱动因素,并对其展开空间效应分解和异质性分析。研究发现:(1)我国城市会展业与物流业耦合协调度呈现出总体上升态势,但尚未呈现出“高耦合-高协调、低耦合-低协调”的同步发展趋势;(2)总体耦合协调度未出现显著性区域差异;(3)人口规模、政府支持力度与旅游发展水平等驱动因素对耦合协调度有显著的正向作用;(4)驱动因素的空间效应差异与区域性异质性差异显著。

The coupling and coordinated development of exhibition industry and logistics industry is the key to assessing the high-quality development of these industries in China.This paper selects data related to the development of urban exhibition and logistics industries,employs comprehensive development indices and coupling coordination models and establishes an evaluation index system for the coupling development level of urban exhibition and logistics industries.It assesses the coupling coordination degree and uses the Spatial Durbin Model to examine the driving factors of coupling coordination,and performs spatial effect decomposition and heterogeneity analysis.The studyfinds that:(1)The coupling and coordination degree of the urban exhibition and logistics industries in China shows an overall upward trend but has not yet exhibited a synchronous development trend of"high coupling-high coordination,low coupling-low coordination";(2)There is no significant regional difference in overall coupling coordination degree;(3)The driving factors such as population size,government support and tourism development level have a significant positive effect on coupling coordination degree;(4)There are significant differences in spatial effects and regional heterogeneity of driving factors.