气候变化对塔河流域河川径流的影响

The impact of climate change on river runoff in the Tarim River Basin

为探讨气候变化对塔河流域河川径流的影响,分别对温度、降雨量以及风速3种气候因子进行长时间的数据监测,通过监测获取塔河流域河川径流的流量值,并绘制3种气候因子对塔河流域河川径流的影响曲线,通过对3种曲线进行整合,综合计算气候变化对塔河流域河川径流的影响参数。结果表明:温度气候因子对塔河流域河川径流呈现先正相关、后负相关的影响关系,降雨量气候因子对塔河流域河川径流呈现正相关的影响关系,风速气候因子对塔河流域河川径流呈现负相关的影响关系。气候变化对塔河流域河川径流的影响较大,能够较好地解释塔河流域河川径流的变化。

To explore the impact of climate change on river runoff in the Tarim River Basin,long-term monitoring of temperature,rainfall,and wind speed was conducted.The flow values of river runoff in the Tarim River Basin were obtained through monitoring,and the impact curves of these three climatic factors on river runoff were drawn.By integrating these curves,the impact parameters of climate change on river runoff in the Tarim River Basin were calculated comprehensively.The results show that the temperature factor has a positive correlation followed by a negative correlation with river runoff,the rainfall factor has a positive correlation,and the wind speed factor has a negative correlation.Climate change has a significant impact on river runoff in the Tarim River Basin,which can well explain the changes in river runoff.