基于GO法-贝叶斯网络的站场工艺流程可靠性分析

Reliability analysis of process flow of station yard based on GO method and Bayesian network

为保证油气站场的安全生产和运行,提高站场完整性管理水平。基于RBI、RCM技术对静设备和动设备的故障率进行计算,随后将工艺流程图转化为GO图,并根据操作符和信号流的逻辑关系将GO图映射为贝叶斯网络,完成故障率、维修率、平均维修时间、平均失效概率等站场可靠性参数的计算,并以某站场为例进行实例评价。结果表明,待评价站场中计量分离器、三相分离器、来油换热器、油水沉降罐、闪蒸罐、再生塔、过滤器等设备的故障率较高;站场内工艺子系统及站场整体的可靠性与设备可用性、修复性和备用性等因素相关;站场整体的平均失效概率为4.59×10^(-2),大于任何一个工艺子系统的平均失效概率,说明风险按照工艺物流走向不断增加,存在风险叠加隐患。

In order to ensure the safe production and operation of the oil and gas station and yard and improve the integrity management level of the station yard,the failure rate of static equipment and dynamic equipment was calculated by risk based inspection(RBI)and reliability centered maintenance(RCM)technologies.Then,the process flow chart was converted into a goal-oriented(GO)diagram,and the GO diagram was mapped to a Bayesian network according to the logical relationship between operators and signal flows.The reliability parameters of the station yard,such as the failure rate,maintenance rate,average maintenance time,and average failure probability were calculated,and a station yard was taken as an example for evaluation.The results show that the failure rate of the metering separator,three-phase separator,oil heat exchanger,oil-water settling tank,flash tank,regeneration tower,filter,and other equipment in the station yard to be evaluated is high.The reliability of the process subsystem and the whole station yard is related to the availability,repairability,and stand-by of the equipment.The average failure probability of the whole station yard is 4.59×10^(-2),which is greater than that of any process subsystem,indicating that the risks continue to increase as process logistics develops,and there is a hidden danger of risk superposition.