多种系统评分对肝硬化合并急性上消化道出血患者28 d死亡的预测作用

The role of multiple system scores in predicting death at 28 d in patients with cirrhosis combined with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage

目的比较MELD评分、AIMS65评分及血小板-白蛋白-胆红素指数(PALBI)在肝硬化合并急性上消化道出血(AUGIB)患者28 d死亡预测中的应用价值,以期为临床筛查最适宜的预后预测评分提供参考依据。方法回顾性纳入2020年1月—2023年12月哈尔滨医科大学第一附属医院重症医学科治疗的378例肝硬化AUGIB患者,根据28 d生存情况分为死亡组60例(15.9%)和生存组318例(84.1%)。通过在线病历系统收集所有肝硬化AUGIB患者的临床资料,计算MELD评分、AIMS65评分及PALBI评分。采用二分类Logistic回归分析MELD评分、AIMS65评分、PALBI评分对肝硬化AUGIB患者死亡的影响,并采用ROC曲线对此3种评分预测肝硬化AUGIB患者死亡的效能进行评定。结果单因素分析显示,与生存组比较,死亡组糖尿病、肝性脑病比例以及凝血酶原时间、红细胞分布宽度、C反应蛋白、MELD评分、AIMS65评分、PALBI评分均升高,白蛋白降低,差异具有统计学意义(P<0.05)。多因素Logistic回归分析结果显示,校正糖尿病、肝性脑病比例、凝血酶原时间等混杂因素后,MELD评分(OR=1.621,95%CI:1.185-2.217)、AIMS65评分(OR=1.914,95%CI:1.361-2.690)、PALBI评分(OR=1.984,95%CI:1.410-2.791)是肝硬化AUGIB患者死亡的独立危险因素。ROC曲线显示,MELD评分、AIMS65评分、PALBI评分预测肝硬化28 d死亡的AUC分别为0.685(95%CI:0.614-0.756)、0.828(95%CI:0.771-0.885)、0.860(95%CI:0.808-0.913)。结论MELD评分、AIMS65评分、PALBI评分均是肝硬化AUGIB患者死亡的独立危险因素,并对预后风险具有提示作用,其中以AIMS65评分、PALBI评分的预测价值最高。

Objective to compare the application value of MELD score,AIMS65 score and platelet-albumin-bilirubin index(PALBI)in the prediction of 28 d death in patients with cirrhosis combined with acute upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage(AUGIB)with a view to providing a reference basis for clinical screening of the most appropriate prognostic prediction score.Methods 378 patients with cirrhosis AUGIB treated in the Department of Critical Care Medicine of the First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2020 to December 2023 were retrospectively included,and were categorized into 60(15.9%)in the death group and 318(84.1%)in the survival group based on 28 d survival.Clinical data of all cirrhotic AUGIB patients were retrospectively collected through an online medical record system,and MELD score,AIMS65 score and PALBI score were calculated.The effects of MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score on death in cirrhotic AUGIB patients were analyzed using binary logistic regression,and finally,the efficacy of these three scores in predicting death in cirrhotic AUGIB patients was assessed using ROC curves.Results Univariate analysis showed that the proportion of diabetes mellitus and hepatic encephalopathy,as well as the prothrombin time,erythrocyte distribution width,C-reactive protein,MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score were increased and albumin was decreased in the death group compared with the survival group,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).The results of multifactorial logistic regression analysis showed that after correcting for confounders such as diabetes mellitus,proportion of hepatic encephalopathy,and prothrombin time,the MELD score(OR=1.621,95%CI:1.185-2.217),AIMS65 score(OR=1.914,95%CI:1.361-2.690),PALBI score(OR=1.984,95%CI:1.410-2.791)were independent risk factors for death in patients with cirrhosis AUGIB.The ROC curves showed that the AUCs of MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score for predicting death at 28 d of cirrhosis were 0.685(95%CI:0.614-0.756),0.828(95%CI:0.771-0.885),0.860(95%CI:0.808-0.913).Conclusion MELD score,AIMS65 score,and PALBI score were all independent risk factors for death in cirrhotic AUGIB patients and suggestive of prognostic risk,with AIMS65 score and PALBI score having the highest predictive value.