考虑用户负荷率因素的电力市场偏差电量定价方法

Electricity market deviation power pricing method considering customer load factor

针对偏差电量定价中尚未考虑用户的负荷率变化,导致电力交易各方的经济利益不均衡问题,提出考虑用户负荷率因素的电力市场偏差电量定价方法。以售电量时间序列为基准,完成基于多元线性回归的电力市场售电量预测。在此基础上,建立基于月用电量偏差率的惩罚机制,考虑负荷率和偏差率的变化确定对应偏差电量的电价。通过某区域电力市场交易数据试验,负荷率的波动直接影响购电公司收益,提出的偏差电量定价方法能够降低偏差考核电费对整体收益的影响,规范电量市场交易行为,在一定程度上均衡用户和售电企业各方的利益。

In view of the problem that the user’s load factor change has not been taken into account in the biased electricity pricing,resulting in the imbalance of economic interests of all parties in the power transaction,a biased electricity market pricing method that considers the user’s load factor is proposed.Based on the electricity sales time series,the electricity market sales forecast based on multiple linear regression is completed.On this basis,a penalty mechanism based on the deviation rate of monthly electricity consumption is established,and the price of the corresponding deviation electricity is determined by considering the changes in load rate and deviation rate.Through an experiment with transaction data in a certain regional power market,it was found that fluctuations in load factors directly affect the income of power purchasing companies.The proposed biased electricity pricing method can reduce the impact of biased electricity assessment on overall revenue,standardize electricity market trading behavior,and balance users and consumers to a certain extent.The interests of all parties involved in electricity sales enterprises.