大国竞争与新时代的中国经济发展战略

Great Power Competition and the Economic Development Strategy of China in the New Era

面对百年未有之大变局,中国经济发展的内部条件和外部环境发生了重大变化。应对新的机遇与挑战,中国要正确处理三对关系:一是正确处理与守成大国之间的关系,中国追赶美国的战略目标既是现实的,同时又具有挑战性,这就决定了我们既要旗帜鲜明地反对“脱钩断链”,不谋求取代美国的世界霸权,也不谋求中美“共治世界”,而是保持双边之间有足够的“战略空间”,防止守成大国有意诱导所致的“战略透支”,避免过早陷入“追赶者陷阱”;二是正确处理与区域经济秩序之间的关系,依托中国超大规模市场,提升市场吸引力,建立具有包容性和有秩序的亚洲市场;三是正确处理中国公共产品提供与全球创新共享之间的关系,既要提供符合自身实力的全球公共品,也要推进全球技术创新的共治共享,争取更加有利的国际环境,提升国际规则制定的话语权。总之,中国应主动塑造自主战略机遇期,不断增强内生性、可塑性和延展性,推动建立亚洲共同体,逐步形成“三足鼎立”、“竞争共存”的全球经济秩序。

Against the backdrop of profound changes unseen in a century,the internal conditions and the external environment of Chinese economy have changed dramatically.In the face of new chances and challenges,China should deal with three pairs of relationships appropriately.The first is the relationship between China and established powers.The strategic goal of China to catch up with the U.S.is both realistic and challenging.This determines that China should not only oppose"decoupling",and refrain from seeking to replace the U.S.hegemony or a G2 with the U.S.to govern the world,but also maintain enough"strategic space"with the U.S.bilaterally,restrain"strategic overdraft"induced by established powers,and avoid falling into the"catchingup trap".The second relationship is that of China with regional economic order.China ought to on the one hand,enhance the attraction of its own market,and on the other,build inclusive and orderly Asian market based on such an oversized market of its own.The third is the relationship between China's provision of public goods and sharing of global innovation.China needs to provide global public goods in correspondence with its ability,promote joint governance and sharing of global technological innovation,and seek to improve international environment and increase its power in international rule-making.In conclusion,China should take proactive actions to create strategic opportunities and enhance its endogeneity,plasticity and stretchability.In the meantime,China should promote the building of an Asian community and a"three-legged"global economic order of competitive co-existence.