制度运行成本、风险偏好与修正主义霸权——以冷战结束后美国的制度战略演变为例

Institution Operation Cost,Risk Preference and Revisionist Hegemon:The Evolution of the United States'Institutional Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era

守成国是否会成为制度修正者?传统研究认为,守成国是制度的建构者和维护者,崛起国则通常是修正者。然而,美国近年来对全球多边制度体系发起的挑战表明,守成国也可能成为修正者。基于制度权力是权力的一种具体形式、创设制度的成本高昂且通常大于维持制度的成本两项假定,制度运行成本与风险偏好构成了守成国转向修正主义制度战略的两个关键变量。在互动进程中,守成国通过将崛起国纳入制度建立制度霸权,但崛起国的制度权力增长导致守成国主导制度运行的成本上升并日益受到制度约束,最终面临放弃或重构主导权的抉择。为规避制度内竞争的不利前景,守成国在风险偏好驱动下转向修正主义制度战略。冷战结束后,美国自由国际主义思想得到发展,愿意并鼓励新兴国家参与多边制度。随着新兴国家影响制度决策的能力持续提升,美国对全球多边制度体系发起挑战,试图通过重建排他性制度体系剥夺新兴国家的制度权力。明确守成国采取“软”修正主义战略的因果机制,有助于完善权力转移理论的相关论断,对于维护全球多边秩序也具有现实意义。

Will an established power become institutional revisionist?In classic IR literature,an established power is typically the constructor and defender of international institutions,while a rising power is the revisionist.However,the challenges the United States have posed to the global system of multilateral institutions in recent years suggest that an established power can also be a revisionist.Based on two assumptions that institutional power is a specific form of power,and that the cost of building an institution is higher than that of maintaining it,the paper argues that institution operation cost and risk preference are two key variables that determine the established power's shifting towardssrevisionistinstitutional constructs institutional hegemony by including the rising power into the institution,the growth of the rising power's institutional power leads to continuous rise of institution operation cost and institutional restriction for the established power.Ultimately,the established power must make a choice between giving up or reconstructing its dominant status.To avoid the unfavorable prospect of competition within the institution,the established power turns to revisionist institutional strategy driven by risk preference.After the end of the Cold War,as liberal internationalism was developed and implemented by the United States,emerging countries were encouraged to participate in multilateral institutions.However,as emerging countries produce increasing impact on the decision-making of institutions,the United States starts to challenge the global system of multilateral institutions and tries to deprive emerging countries of their institutional power by rebuilding exclusive institutional system.Clarifying why and how an established power adopts soft revisionist institutional strategy,the paper may contribute to complementing power transition theory,and bear practical significance for maintaining multilateral global order.