竞争模式、利益平衡度与中美海上危机管控

Mode of Competition,Balance of Interest and Sino-US Maritime Crisis Management

海上危机管控机制能够促进大国海上互动的可预测性与稳定性,避免大国因海空意外相遇事件走向全面冲突。影响大国海上危机管控效果的因素主要涉及竞争模式与利益平衡度。处于同期竞争模式下的大国能够建立对称性的相互威慑关系,形成风险规避的共同偏好,各方自我克制与履约相对充分。高水平的海上利益平衡意味着各方立场协调难度较低,机制细节更易被明确、可操作性较强,有助于减少海空摩擦事件的发生。自20世纪末以来,中美海上危机管控机制曾促使双方在多次海空相遇中减少误判,也为双方管控分歧与避免军事对峙提供了年度会晤、工作小组、专门会议等沟通渠道。相较于美苏冷战时期的同期竞争模式与较高水平的利益平衡度,中美之间所处的追赶模式与低水平的海上利益平衡度决定了双方海上危机管控将面临更大的困难。为了进一步强化中美海上危机管控,中国应加快缩小中美力量差距以塑造对称性中美海上威慑,促进机制细化与完善,增强双方海上危机管控机制的可操作性,构建中美海空危机中的沟通战略以提高中国危机决策的韧性。与此同时,中国也应强化对中美海上危机管控实践的反思,优化与美国关键盟友及战略伙伴的海上沟通机制建设,鼓励东盟及其成员国发挥有益作用。

Maritime crisis management mechanisms can foster predictability and stability in interactions between major powers,and thereby all-out conflict arising from unexpected maritime accidents could be avoided.The primary factors influencing maritime crisis encompass the mode of competition and the balance of interest.In contemporaneous competition mode,major powers can establish symmetrical relationship of mutual deterrence,develop a common preference for risk avoidance,and relatively adequate self-restraint and compliance with rules.A higher level of balance of maritime interest means lower coordination difficulty among all parties,easier specification of mechanism details,and greater operational feasibility,all contributing to the reduction of possible friction at sea and in the air.Since the end of the 20th century,the Sino-US maritime crisis management mechanism has played a role in reducing miscalculations in many air and sea encounters,and provided channels of communication for the two sides to manage their differences and avoid military confrontation,such as annual meetings,working groups and special meetings.Compared with the contemporaneous competition and a relatively high level of the balance of interest between the United States and the Soviet Union during the Cold War,the catch-up competition and a relatively low level of the balance of maritime interest between China and the United States determine that the latter pair could encounter greater difficulties in maritime crisis management.To enhance Sino-US maritime crisis management,China should strive to narrow the power gap with the U.S.,thereby shaping a more symmetrical deterrence relationship.Additionally,China needs to refine and improve the maritime crisis management mechanism for better operational feasibility,and develop a communication strategy to enhance China's resilience in decision-making during a crisis.Concurrently,based on a critical review of the Sino-US maritime crisis management process,China should optimize the maritime communication mechanisms with key allies and strategic partners of U.S.,and encourage ASEAN and its member states to play a constructive role.