农业经济发展与生态环境系统的耦合协调关系——基于湖南省绿色低碳发展的实证

The Coupling and Coordination Relationship between Agricultural Economic Development and Ecological Environment System--Based on the Demonstration of Green and Low-carbon Development in Hunan Province

基于探究农业经济发展与生态环境两系统在绿色低碳发展中的耦合协调关系目标设计,运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型以及耦合演化模型测度湖南省农业经济发展与生态环境系统综合评价指数,并具体分析二者在时序条件下的静态与动态耦合关系变化。结果表明:第一,2009—2021年,湖南省农业碳排放总量呈现先增后降的趋势,下降速度不断加快,农业绿色低碳特点显著;第二,在研究期内,湖南省农业经济系统评价指数保持稳定上升态势,生态系统指数则呈现先降后升的趋势,从“经济落后”很快转向“生态滞后”阶段;第三,农业经济发展与生态环境子系统的耦合协调度整体呈加速上升趋势,从0.279跃升至0.828,耦合协调阶段从中度失调衰退演变为良好协调发展;第四,动态耦合度呈现从小到大的变化趋势,表现为协调共存演化到和谐共生的发展阶段。研究结果启示,湖南省应继续坚持以生态强省战略指导农业发展方向,推动农业经济与生态环境协调共振,早日实现二者的高水平耦合协调发展。

In order to explore the coupling coordination relationship between agricultural economic development and ecological environment systems in green and low-carbon development,the entropy method,coupled coordination degree model and coupled evolution model were used to measure the comprehensive evaluation index of agricultural economic development and ecological environment systems in Hunan Province,and the static and dynamic coupling relationship changes between the two under time series conditions were analyzed in detail.The results showed that:first,from 2009 to 2021,the total agricultural carbon emissions in Hunan Province showed a trend of increasing first and then decreasing,and the decline rate continued to accelerate,with significant green and low-carbon characteristics of agriculture;second,during the research period,the agricultural economic system evaluation index of Hunan Province maintained a steady upward trend,while the ecosystem index showed a trend of decreasing first and then rising,quickly shifting from"economic backwardness"to"ecological lag"stage;third,the coupling and coordination degree between agricultural economic development and ecological environment subsystems has generally accelerated,jumping from 0.279 to 0.828.The coupling and coordination stage has evolved from moderate imbalance and decline to good coordinated development;fourth,the dynamic coupling degree has shown a change trend from small to large,manifested in the development stage of coordinated coexistence to harmonious coexistence.Inspired by the research results,Hunan Province should continue to adhere to the strategy of strengthening the ecological province to guide the direction of agricultural development,promote the coordinated resonance of the agricultural economy and the ecological environment,and achieve high-level coupled and coordinated development of the two as soon as possible.