川南经济区森林火险气象预报技术研究

Research on meteorological forecast technology of forest fire danger in South Sichuan Economic Zone

根据川南经济区(泸州市、内江市、宜宾市、自贡市)20个国家气象站1990~2022年逐日气象数据、1990~2022年森林火灾资料,通过计算林火分类条件概率,完善20个国家站12个气象要素单因子贡献度数学模型的参数调整,最终构建出适用于川南经济区的森林火险气象等级预报模型。经验证,模型计算得到的火灾发生时森林火险气象等级均在3级以上,表明森林火灾风险高,与川南经济区林火的出现较为吻合,适用于川南经济区森林火险气象等级实际预报中。

According to the daily meteorological data from 20 national meteorological stations in South Sichuan Economic Zone(Luzhou City,Neijiang City,Yibin City,and Zigong City) from 1990 to 2022,as well as forest fire data from 1990 to 2022.By calculating the probability of forest fire classification conditions,the parameter adjustment of the single factor contribution mathematical model of 12 meteorological elements from 20 national stations was improved,and finally a forest fire risk meteorological grade prediction model suitable for South Sichuan Economic Zone was constructed.After verification,the meteorological grades of forest fire dange calculated by the model were all above grade 3,indicating a high risk of forest fire,which is consistent with the occurrence of forest fires in South Sichuan Economic Zone.It is suitable for the actual prediction of forest fire danger meteorological grades in South Sichuan Economic Zone.