金正恩执政后朝鲜经济政策调整及前景

DPRK’s Economic Policy Adjustment and Prospects after Kim Jong-un Taking Office

金正恩执政后,朝鲜的市场化改革旨在扩大经济产出,在宏观、微观经济及金融领域均进行了一系列调整。经济权力下放和企业管理制度重组,使经济实体能够更好地获取资源、扩大生产,形成增量循环。朝鲜审慎的货币政策等因素,对稳定物价和汇率起到了积极作用,使经济运行保持在合理区间。即便历经制裁和疫情冲击,朝鲜国民经济各领域依旧展现出一定生机。随着对外贸易增长,2023年朝鲜物价和汇率已经接近疫情前的水平,并超额完成国民经济各领域生产目标。但由于企业自主权、产能、商业银行金融中介功能以及国际制裁等的一定限制,影响到朝鲜市场化的经济绩效。未来朝鲜经济可能取决于解决国际制裁问题的进展,以及促进经济转型与对华经济合作的良性互动。

After Kim Jong-un taking power,the DPRK’s market-oriented reforms aimed to expanding economic output,and a series of adjustments were made in the macro-and micro-economic as well as financial fields.Economic decentralization and reorganization of the enterprise management system have enabled economic entities to better access resources,expand production,and create an incremental cycle.Factors such as the DPRK’s prudent monetary policy have played a positive role in stabilizing prices and the exchange rate,keeping economic operations within a reasonable range.Even after the impact of sanctions and epidemics,the DPRK’s national economy continues to show some vitality in various fields.With the growth of foreign trade,the DPRK’s prices and exchange rate in 2023 were close to the pre-epidemic level and exceeded the production targets in all sectors of the national economy.However,certain limitations on corporate autonomy,production capacity,the financial intermediation function of commercial banks,and international sanctions have affected the DPRK’s market-oriented economic performance.In the future,DPRK’s economy may depend on progress in resolving the international sanctions issue and promoting positive interaction between economic transformation and economic cooperation with China.