安徽省医疗废物产生量的时空变化趋势及其影响因素

The spatial-temporal variation trend and influencing factors of medical wastegeneration in Anhui Province

从省、市等不同层级视角,利用空间自相关模型,分析了安徽省医疗废物产生量的时空演变趋势。在此基础上,运用地理探测器模型分析了经济发展水平、人口状况、医疗卫生水平等相关因素对医疗废物产生量的影响程度及其交互作用,并进一步运用GM(1,1)模型对安徽省16个地级市未来4年的医疗废物产生量进行预测分析。结果表明,安徽省各地市的医疗废物产生量在空间上存在显著差异,但空间聚集效应不显著,常住人口、医院病床数、医疗卫生技术人员数和人均地区生产总值等因素对医疗废物的产生具有显著影响,其中常住人口的影响最为显著。未来,安徽省医疗废物产生量将呈现持续增长的趋势,在近年来各类突发性传染病疫情的背景下,各城市应注重加强医疗废物应急处置能力及其韧性水平提升。结果可以为医疗废物的有效管理提供有益借鉴。

From the perspectives of provincial and municipal levels,this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of medical waste generation in Anhui Province by using spatial autocorrelation model.On this basis,the influence and interaction of economic development level,population situation,medical and health level and other relevant factors on medical waste generation were analyzed by using geographical detector model.Furthermore,the GM(1,1)model was used to predict the medical waste generation of 16 prefecture-level cities in Anhui Province in the next four years.The results showed that there were significant differences in the medical waste generation of various cities in Anhui Province on the spatial scale,but the spatial agglomeration effect was not significant.The permanent population,the number of hospital beds,the number of medical and health technical personnel and the per capita regional gross domestic product had a significant impact on the generation of medical waste,among which the permanent population had the most significant impact.In the future,the medical waste generation in Anhui Province will show a trend of continuous growth.In the context of various sudden infectious diseases in recent years,cities should pay attention to strengthen the emergency treatment capacity of medical waste and improve its resilience level.The results can provide useful reference for the effective management of medical waste.