多开发主体梯级电站实时负荷控制模型研究

Load Control Model on Real-time of Multi-owner Cascade Hydropower Stations

由于多开发主体下梯级水电站间不能共享实时负荷数据,上一级电站发电负荷变动常导致本级电站非正常弃水或低水位运行问题。为解决这个问题,提出了基于预测控制的多开发主体梯级电站实时负荷控制模型来控制水位。模型分为实时跟踪、预测控制和厂内负荷分配3部分。实时跟踪每1 h进行一次入库流量反推计算来推算预测入库流量序列;预测控制根据标准差选择不同流量递推模型推算入库流量;厂内负荷分配以耗水量最小进行负荷分配优化,实现上游电站负荷及发电流量未知情况下的梯级电站实时负荷分配并保持水位稳定。所提出的实时负荷控制模型应用于木里河梯级电站实时负荷分配,对多开发主体下流域梯级水电站实时负荷分配,维持水位稳定具有一定的指导意义。

In multi-development cascade hydropower systems,the inability to share real-time load data among different stations often leads to challenges such as abnormal water discharge or low water level operations at downstream stations,caused by load fluctuations at upstream stations.This paper introduces a refined real-time load control model designed for cascade hydropower stations in multi-developer contexts,aiming to effectively regulate water levels.The model comprises three integral components:real-time tracking,predictive control,and inplant load distribution.Specifically,the real-time tracking component conducts back-calculations of the inflow discharge every hour,thereby generating a predictive sequence of inflow discharge.The predictive control aspect of the model employs various flow forecasting methodologies,selected based on the standard deviation,to accurately predict inflow discharge.The in-plant load distribution component aims to optimize load distribution with the minimal water consumption,so as to achieve real-time load distribution and maintain water level stability in cascade hydropower stations,particularly when the load and generation flow information from upstream stations remain unknown.The practical application of this real-time load control model is demonstrated in the Muli River cascade hydropower station.Its implementation underscores its significance in guiding real-time load distribution and sustaining water level stability in cascade hydropower stations under multidevelopment scenarios.