中国九大流域水-光-风发电要素时空变化未来预估

Future Projection of Spatial-temporal Changes of Hydro-Solar-Wind Power Generation Factors in Nine Major Basins of China

为实现碳达峰、碳中和发展目标,我国正在大力推进新能源大规模高比例发展和构建以新能源为主体的新型电力系统,并在全国范围规划布局了多个水-光-风清洁能源基地.水电、光伏、风电生产与降水、径流、地表辐射、风速等4种气象水文要素直接相关,且对于气候变化极为敏感.为探究不确定环境下水电为主要调节电源的多能系统互补效能演变特征,搜集整理了第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中同时包含4种要素和4种发展情景(SSP1-2.6、SSP2-4.5、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5)的14种气候模式数据,在流域尺度上评估了1971~2100年4种要素的时空变化及其对水-光-风互补发电的潜在影响.研究结果表明:远未来(2061~2100年)相比近未来(2021~2060年),降水、径流、辐射增加幅度和可能性更大,风速减少幅度和可能性更大;远未来海河、松辽河、内陆河、淮河、西南诸河等流域片降水、径流有较大幅度提升,可以推测在不考虑水电工程调节能力限制等约束下,这些流域通过水电匹配上网的光-风发电量将有明显提升.

To achieve the goal of“carbon peak and carbon neutralization”,we are currently promoting the large-scale and high proportion development of new energy in China,which acts as the core of a new-type power system in construction.In this context,multiple hydro-solar-wind clean energy bases have been planned nationwide.The production of hydro-solar-wind power has been shown directly relevent to four hydro-meteorological factors including precipitation,runoff,surface radiation and wind speed,which are extremely sensitive to climate change.In this study,to explore characteristics of the complementary efficiency evolution in multi-energy systems with hydropower as the primary regulating power source in an uncertain environment,we collect 14 climate models which include the above four factors in different scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP3-7.0,and SSP5-8.5)from the Sixth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project(CMIP6).The spatial-temporal changes of the four factors during 1971~2100 and their potential impacts on the hydro-solar-wind complementary power generation have been explored at basin scale.Results indicate that there will be high increase(decrease)amplitude and possibility of precipitation,runoff and radiation(wind speed)in the far future(2061~2100)compared with the near future(2021~2060).In the far future,precipitation and runoff in several basins(such as the Haihe,Songliao,Inland,Huaihe and Southwest River basins)will increase significantly.It implies that,under simplified constraints such as ignoring regulation capacities of hydropower,the solar and wind power generation to the power grid regulated by hydropower in these basins will be significantly improved.