2005-2022年临沂市肾综合征出血热流行特征分析

Epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Linyi city from 2005 to 2022

目的明确2005-2022年临沂市肾综合征出血热(HFRS)流行特征,为制定相关防控对策提供科学证据。方法HFRS疫情数据来自《传染病报告信息管理系统》,包括性别、年龄、职业、现住址等,人口信息来自临沂市统计局,对2005-01-01-2022-12-31全市疫情数据进行描述性流行病学分析,对发病率资料进行线性回归分析,采用Joinpoint回归模型分析时间趋势,计算报告发病率、年度变化百分比(APC)及平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。结果2005-2022年临沂市共报告HFRS病例2882例,均为散发病例,无暴发疫情,年均发病率为1.54/10万,病死9例,病死率为0.31%,发病数及发病率呈波动式下降趋势,年度发病率经线性回归系数检验,t=-4.471,P<0.001,Joinpoint回归模型分析中,下降趋势差异无统计学意义(AAPC=-11.46%,t=-1.104,P=0.269,95%CI为-28.67~9.89);2005-2007年、2008-2011年、2012-2014年、2015-2022年APC分别为-33.83%、-7.65%、6.62%和-13.05%。男性患者2098例,女性患者784例,男女性别比为2.68∶1;农民占比90.11%(2597/2882);30~<70岁年龄占比80.25%(2313/2882);各县区均有报告病例,沂水县、沂南县、平邑县及莒南县合计占比51.60%(1487/2882);发病高峰期在10~12月,占全年发病总数的53.85%(1552/2882)。结论2005-2022年临沂市HFRS发病呈波动式下降趋势,危害人群仍以男性农民为主,应坚持疫情监测,继续加强健康教育、疫苗接种等防控措施。

Objective To elucidate the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome(HFRS)in Linyi city and provide scientific evidence for formulating relevant prevention and control measures.Methods The HFRS epidemic data,including gender,age,occupation and current address,were collected from the Infectious Disease Reporting Information Management System,and the population information was collected from the Linyi Municipal Bureau of Statistics.Descriptive epidemiological analysis was conducted on the epidemic data of the whole city from January 1,2005to December 31,2022.Linear regression analysis was performed on the incidence data,and the time trend was analyzed by Joinpoint regression model.Annual reported incidence and annual percentage change(APC)and average annual percentage change(AAPC)were calculated.Results A total of 2882 cases of HFRS were reported in Linyi city from 2005to 2022,all of which were sporadic cases without outbreaks.The average annual incidence was 154/100000,9 cases died,and the fatality rate was 0.31%.The number of cases and incidence rate showed a fluctuating downward trend,and the linear regression coefficient of the annual incidence was tested t=-4.471.P<0.001.Joinpoint regression model showed no significant difference in the decline trend(AAPC=-11.46%,t=-1.104,P=0.269,95%CI was-28.67-9.89).The APCs for 2005-2007,2008-2011,2012-2014,and 2015-2022 were-33.83%,-7.65%,6.62%,and-13.05%,respectively.There were 2098 males and 784 females with a sex ratio of 2.68:1.Farmers accounted for90.11%(2597/2882).The age group of 30-<70 years accounted for 80.25%(2313/2882).The cases were reported in Yishui county,Yinan county,Pingyi county and Junan county,accounting for 51.60%(1487/2882).The peak of the incidence was from October to December,accounting for 53.85%(1552/2882)of the total annual incidence.Conclusions From 2005 to 2022,the incidence of HFRS in Linyi city showed a fluctuating downward trend,and the affected population is still mainly male farmers.It is necessary to adhere to epidemic surveillance,continue to strengthen health education,vaccination and other prevention and control measures.