国内国际双循环背景下中国制造业转型升级——基于对外直接投资角度

Transformation of China's Manufacturing Industry under the Dual Circulation Background:Based on the Perspective of OFDI

国内国际双循环新发展格局逐渐形成,中国制造业逐步开始转型升级。利用2015—2021年的相关数据,建立OFDI-制造业评估体系,探索对外直接投资对其的影响。总体而言,中国对外直接投资(OFDI)促进了中国制造业高质量发展,存在逆向技术溢出的中介效应,对制造业创新发展方面的积极作用最为显著。在要素密集度和经济合作与发展组织(OECD)两种不同分类标准中,技术密集型制造业和中低级技术制造业受到的积极影响最大。最后,从政府和企业层面提出建议,为“智造2025”贡献力量。

The traditional manufacturing industry of China has begun to transform and upgrade against the backdrop of China’s dual-circulation development pattern.Based on relevant data from 2015to 2021,an evaluation index system to assess the impact of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)on the transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry was conducted.The result show that OFDI positively promotes high-quality manufacturing development,with a mediating effect of reverse technology spillover.Particularly,OFDI significantly enhances innovation in manufacturing.Across manufacturing classifications,OFDI’s positive effects are notable in technologyintensive industries and medium-low-technology industries.Tailored recommendations for government and industry are proposed to contribute to the goal of “intelligent manufacturing in China 2025”.