复杂环境下工程物流网络级联失效抗毁性研究

Investigating the resilience of engineering logistics networks against cascade failures in complex environments

合理评估工程物流网络抗毁性有助于保障工程物资及时准确供应,为制定物资运输计划与交通中断疏通应急预案提供科学支撑。针对复杂环境下工程物流网络运输通道承载能力不足且风险多样的特征,在考虑路段状态的基础上提出了拥堵效应分配策略,选择与复杂环境下工程物流网络中断成因相对应的三种攻击方式进行级联失效模拟。构建了反映路段抗毁能力、网络结构完整性及网络服务能力的评价指标,评估了复杂环境下工程物流网络和路段的抗毁性。最后,以复杂环境下某交通基础设施建设工程物流网络为例,验证了模型的有效性和合理性。结果表明:当路段容差参数β和失效阈值参数λ取值为0.5时,工程物流网络抗毁能力提升最为经济合理;工程物流网络中的路段在面临不同规模级联失效时存活率排序稳定,需要对存活率较低的路段制定针对性保通策略;工程物流网络抵抗介数降序蓄意攻击的能力较弱,面对风险降序蓄意攻击时抗毁性较强;相较于传统负载重分配策略,所提出的拥堵效应分配策略可以使工程物流网络抗毁性提升约38%。

A thorough assessment of the resilience of the engineering logistics network is crucial for maintaining a reliable and efficient supply chain of engineering materials.It provides essential insights for devising material transportation plans and contingency strategies in the event of traffic disruptions.Given the challenges posed by limited carrying capacity and diverse risks in transportation corridors within complex environments,we adopt a nuanced approach.By evaluating congestion levels at the road section level using the Greenberg speed-density model,we gain valuable insights into the dynamics of traffic flow within engineering logistics transportation networks across various timeframes.A load redistribution strategy,which incorporates the impact of road section congestion,is devised in conjunction with road section betweenness centrality.We select three attack modes that correspond to common causes of disruption within engineering logistics networks operating in complex environments,facilitating cascade failure simulations.Evaluation indices are then developed to gauge the resilience of both individual road sections and the overall network structure,as well as its service capacity.These metrics provide a comprehensive assessment of the network s invulnerability and the robustness of individual road segments.To validate the model s effectiveness and rationality,we employ the logistics network from a transportation infrastructure construction project in a complex environment as a case study.The findings reveal a pivotal point in the impact of road section performance parameters on the network s resilience.Optimal enhancement of the engineering logistics network s invulnerability occurs when the road section tolerance parameterβand cascade failure threshold parameterλare set to 0.5,representing the most economical and practical approach.The road sections within the engineering logistics network exhibit a consistent survival rate when faced with cascade failures of varying magnitudes.It is essential to develop a targeted preservation strategy for road sections with lower survival rates.Engineering logistics networks demonstrate lower resilience against deliberate attacks on median descents but show increased resilience against intentional attacks on risky descents.In comparison to the conventional load reallocation approach,the proposed congestion effect allocation strategy in this study can enhance the resilience of engineering logistics networks by approximately 38%.The findings of the study offer scientific backing for the development of emergency transportation plans within engineering logistics networks operating in complex environments.