欧盟碳边境调节机制对全球钢铁行业的多维影响

The multidimensional impact of the EU carbon border regulation mechanism on the global steel industry

欧盟碳边境调节机制(CBAM)将于2026年正式实施,但其对全球气候治理有效性和国际贸易的影响尚存在较多争议。运用GTAP-E模型及其第10版数据库数据、联合国商务数据和碳排放等数据,以钢铁行业为研究对象,分析了CBAM的减碳效果及其对全球钢铁贸易、中国钢铁生产和销售等方面的影响。研究发现,在不同关税情景下:大部分地区碳排放总量和钢铁碳排放量不降反升,其中欧盟的增幅最高;欧盟钢铁出口量和出口额均出现大幅增长,中国钢铁出口量和出口额小幅下降,其他地区钢铁出口量和出口额基本稳定,全球钢铁贸易量下降;中国钢铁生产、销售和碳排放量出现小幅下滑。在CBAM单独执行的情况下,对中国钢铁出口贸易影响有限,一旦国际碳关税联盟形成,将对中国钢铁出口产生巨大影响。建议:以短流程炼钢工艺逐步取代长流程炼钢工艺,实施绿电替代燃煤;对钢铁行业全产业链进行绿色低碳技术改革,实施碳标签制度;尽快将钢铁行业纳入全国碳市场,试点碳定价机制。

The EU Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism(CBAM)will impose in 2026,but its impact on the effectiveness of global climate governance and international trade remains controversial.This paper uses the GTAP-E model and its 10th edition database data,United Nations business data,and carbon emissions data to analyze the carbon reduction effect of CBAM and its impact on global steel trade,China’s steel production and sales,with the steel industry as the research object.The results show that under different tariff scenarios,the total carbon emissions and steel carbon emissions in most regions increase rather than decrease,with the EU having the highest growth rate;the export volume and export value of steel from the European Union have both increased significantly,while China’s steel export volume and export value have slightly decreased.The steel export volume and export value from other regions have remained stable,and the global steel trade volume has decreased;When CBAM is implemented separately,its impact on China’s steel export trade is limited.Once an international carbon tariff alliance is formed,it will have a huge impact on China’s steel exports.We suggest gradually replacing the long-process steel making process with the short-process steel making process,implementing green electricity to replace coal,reforming green and low-carbon technology for the whole industrial chain of the steel industry,implementing a carbon labeling system and quickly incorporating the steel industry into the national carbon market and pilot a carbon pricing mechanism.