基于模糊影响图的对外承包工程竣工结算风险评价研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Completion Settlement of Overseas Contracted-Projects Based on Fuzzy Influence Diagram

“一带一路”背景下,对外承包工程面临的风险因素充满着不确定性,量化风险发生的概率存在困难。基于文献研究法和结合对外承包工程特点,从内部风险和外部风险两个方面构建竣工结算风险评价指标体系,利用模糊影响图建立竣工结算风险评价模型,最后通过马来西亚某项目进行实证分析,结果表明:采用模糊影响图风险评价方法能够得到价值节点的风险大小和概率分布,从而实现了对风险的有效评价,进一步为中国企业在对外承包工程中进行风险防范和控制提供依据。

Under the background of Belt and Road,the risk factors faced by overseas contracted projects are full of uncertainty,and it is difficult to quantify the probability of risk occurrence.Based on the literature research method and combined with the characteristics of foreign contracted projects,from the internal settlement risk evaluation index system of external risk and construction,using the fuzzy influence diagrams settlement risk assessment model,finally through the empirical analysis of Malaysia project,the results show that:fuzzy influence diagrams risk assessment method can get the value node risk size and probability distribution,so as to realize the effective evaluation of risk,further provide a basis for Chinese enterprises in risk prevention and control in foreign contracted projects.