基于VECM模型的房地产价格成分实证研究——以北上广深四城市为例

Empirical Study on Real Estate Price Components Based on VECM Model:A Case Study of Cities in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen

本文基于2008年至2023年我国四个一线城市的面板数据,运用向量误差修正模型(VECM)对理论框架进行实证检验,研究发现:长期房价的大部分动态趋势可以用狭义货币供应量、抵押贷款利率和租金收入来解释;北京、广州和深圳的房地产市场由经济和政府基本面主导,其房价更多依托于基本价值和周期性成分,上海的房地产市场则由其它成分所主导,投资属性较强;结合房地产市场未来发展趋势,“房住不炒”的政策定调仍有理论依据和现实必要,政府应支持实体产业经济发展,引导资金注入实体经济,而非房地产市场。

This article utilizing panel data from four first-tier cities in China from 2008 to 2023,the study employs a Vector Error Correction Model(VECM)to empirically test the theoretical framework.The study shows that the majority of long-term housing price trends can be explained by the narrow money supply,mortgage interest rates,and rental income;The real estate markets in Beijing,Guangzhou,and Shenzhen are primarily influenced by economic and governmental fundamentals,with housing prices being more dependent on basic values and cyclical components,whereas the Shanghai market is primarily driven by other components.The Shanghai market emphasizes investment;Considering the future trends in the real estate market,the policy of"housing for living,not for speculation"continues to have a theoretical foundation and is necessary in practice.The government should support the development of the real economy and direct investment towards the physical sector rather than the real estate market.