基于施工全过程的地铁建筑垃圾产生特征及产量预测

Generation Characteristics and Output Prediction of Subway Construction Waste Based on the Whole Construction Process

为实现地铁建设可持续发展,准确预测和控制建筑垃圾产生量至关重要。以昆明市地铁工程为对象,经调研和施工进度跟踪,识别不同阶段建筑垃圾产生的来源和种类,并分析主要建筑垃圾的产量影响因素。采用面积估算法估计2009-2021年昆明市地铁建筑垃圾产量最大的工程渣土,并利用灰色预测模型对2022-2033年工程渣土产量进行预测。结果表明,未来十年工程渣土预计达11748万方,且该模型精度高,有助于科学制定管理策略。

In order to achieve the sustainable development of subway construction,it is important to accurately predict and control the amount of construction waste generated.Taking the Kunming subway project as the object,the sources and types of construction waste at different stages were identified through investigation and construction progress tracking,and the influencing factors of the output of main construction waste were analyzed.The area estimation method was used to estimate the engineering residue with the largest output of construction waste in Kunming from 2009 to 2021,and the gray prediction model was used to predict the output of engineering waste from 2022 to 2033.The results show that the engineering residue is expected to reach 117.48 million cubic meters in the next ten years,and the model has high accuracy,which is helpful for scientifically formulating management strategies.