基于PLUS-Markov-InVEST模型的连云港市连云区“三生”空间的时空演变和多情景碳储量变化模拟研究

Spatial and Temporal Evolution of the Production-Living-Ecological Space in Lianyungang City Lianyun District and Simulation of Carbon Stock Changes in Multi-Scenarios Based on PLUS-Markov-InVEST Model

“三生”空间作为区域人地关系系统的核心,探究其在县区级小尺度高分辨率区域内的时空演变规律及碳储量变化,以期为区域“三生”空间更好地发挥协同效应提供参考。本文以2018-2021年连云港市连云区土地利用矢量数据,建立基于土地利用主导功能的“三生”空间分类体系,从土地利用的数量、结构、程度变化三个方面分析“三生”空间的土地动态演变过程并从自然和社会经济两个层面选取21种驱动因子数据,运用PLUS-Markov-InVEST模型在自然发展、经济发展和耕地—生态双保护情景下进行2025年的土地利用模拟及碳储量变化分析。结果表明:自然发展和经济发展这两种情景均不利于区域可持续发展。只有在耕地和生态双保护情景下,才能够在保护生态空间的同时,使得生产空间和生活空间重新合理配置。

As the core of the regional human-land relationship system,it is important to explore the spatial and temporal evolution patterns and carbon stock changes in the small-scale high-resolution areas at the county and district level,in order to provide reference for the synergistic effects of the regional produc⁃tion-living-ecological space to play a better role.This paper analyzes the production-living-ecological space classification system based on land use vector data of Lianyungang City in 2018-2021,and analyzes the pro⁃duction-living-ecological space classification system based on the dominant function of land use from three aspects of land use quantity,structure,and degree of change.Lianyungang District land use vector data from 2018 to 2021,establish the classification system of the production-living-ecological space based on the dominant function of land use,analyze the land dynamic evolution process of the production-living-ecologi⁃cal space in terms of changes in the quantity,structure and degree of land use,and select 21 driving factors from the natural and socio-economic dimensions,and use PLUS to analyze the spatial and temporal evolu⁃tion of the production-living-ecolofical space.The data of 21 driving factors were selected from both natural and socio-economic levels,and the PLUS-Markov-In-VEST model was applied to simulate the land use and analyze the change of carbon stock in 2025 under the scenarios of natural development,economic devel⁃opment and dual protection of arable land and ecology.The results show that the two scenarios of natural de⁃velopment and economic development are not conducive to the sustainable development of the region.Only under the scenario of dual protection of arable land and ecology can the production space and living space be reallocated rationally while protecting the ecological space.