全球半导体贸易网络结构演化及影响因素

The evolution and influencing factors of global semiconductor trade network

在全球产业链加速重构背景下,准确把握全球半导体不同环节贸易网络组织结构演化态势及影响因素对诠释核心高技术产业视角下的新型世界格局具有重要意义。本文从产业链视角构建全球半导体贸易网络演化的理论框架,基于联合国贸易数据库中半导体贸易数据,运用复杂网络、空间分析与负二项回归等方法,揭示2001—2022年全球半导体产业不同环节贸易空间格局、贸易网络拓扑结构和组织结构的演化规律及其驱动因素。研究结论如下:①制造设备贸易网络格局始终由美日以及部分西欧国家担任主要角色,制造材料和制成器件的主导权持续向东亚国家(地区)集中。贸易网络联系愈发紧密,并呈现出明显的幂律分布特征和小世界现象。②全球半导体贸易网络节点组织结构保持稳定的“核心-边缘”层次体系模式,节点类型以主导型和边缘型为主,网络关系组织演化具有显著的北半球分裂和南半球整合特征。③语言邻近性和良好的地缘经济关系对半导体贸易网络发展具有促进作用,地理邻近性的正向作用减弱,经济邻近性的抑制作用增强。国家经济发展水平、对外开放程度、科技发展水平均有不同程度的影响,社会治理水平的影响程度较小。

Amidst the accelerated restructuring of the global industrial chain,accurately grasping the evolutionary trends in the organizational structure of global semiconductor trade networks across various stages and their influencing factors holds significant importance in interpreting a novel world order from the perspective of core high-tech industries.This paper constructs a theoretical framework for the evolution of the global semiconductor trade network from an industrial chain perspective.Semiconductor trade data were from UN Comtrade Database.Complex network analysis,spatial analysis,and negative binomial regression methods are employed to reveal the evolution patterns of the trade spatial layout,trade network topology,and organizational structure of the global semiconductor industry from 2001 to 2022,along with the driving factors.The conclusions of this research are as follows:(1)The trade network for manufacturing equipment has consistently been dominated by the US,Japan,and some Western European countries,while the dominance for manufacturing materials and finished devices continues to concentrate towards East Asia.The trade network has become increasingly interconnected,exhibiting evident characteristics of power-law distribution and a small-world phenomenon.(2)The organizational structure of nodes within the global semiconductor trade network maintains a stable hierarchical system of“core-periphery”,with node types contained by dominant and marginal types.Evolution of network relationships shows distinct features of Northern Hemisphere division and Southern Hemisphere integration.(3)Proximity in language and favorable geopolitical economic relations play a facilitating role in the development of the semiconductor trade network,while the positive impact of geographical proximity diminishes and the negative effect of economic proximity strengthens.The economic development level of a country,its degree of openness to foreign markets,and technological advancement all exert varying degrees of influence.However,the impact of social governance level is comparatively minor.