京津冀协同发展的政策效应及空间分异研究

Policy effect and spatial differentiation of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development

区域协同政策促进“弱者受益”是协同能够维系的动力。京津冀协同发展战略自实施以来,其实际效果一直备受质疑,一些消极的声音认为该政策只惠及了北京和天津,并未有效带动河北这一“弱者”的发展。针对这种质疑,本文以2015年京津冀协同发展政策的实施为准自然实验,利用合成控制法和2010—2020年中国省市面板数据,实证评估了该政策对河北省经济增长、产业结构优化升级和空气质量改善所产生的政策效应及空间异质性。结果表明:①京津冀协同发展政策并未对河北省经济增长产生明显带动作用,但促进了河北省产业结构优化和空气质量改善,呈现出高质量协同发展的趋势;②京津冀协同发展政策对河北省内各地级市的政策效应会因其距离京津远近不同而差异化,呈现出以京津为核心的“中心—外围”扩散规律;③邻京地级市获得了明显的产业结构优化效应,邻津地级市获得了明显的经济增长效应,环京津地级市在空气质量改善方面明显优于河北南部地级市。未来需要以高质量发展的理念重新审视京津冀协同发展政策的效果,科学推进城市群内的产业转移与承接,同时夯实河北经济发展的基础条件,实现京津冀协同过程中的空间公平与因地制宜。

The driving force behind coordination is that the regional coordination policies can benefit the weak.Since the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy,its actual effect has been questioned.Some negative views suggest that this policy has only benefited Beijing and Tianjin,but has not promoted the development of Hebei.In response to this question,this paper takes the implementation of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy in 2015 as a natural experiment,using synthetic control method and panel data from 2010 to 2020,empirically evaluates the policy effect and spatial heterogeneity of this policy on economic growth,industrial structure optimization and air quality improvement of Hebei.Results indicate that:(1)The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development policy did not significantly drive the economic growth of Hebei,but promoted the optimization of industrial structure and the improvement of air quality,showing a trend of highquality coordinated development.(2)The policy effect on prefecture-level cities of Hebei is different due to their distance from Beijing and Tianjin,showing a"center-periphery"diffusion pattern with Beijing and Tianjin as the core.(3)The cities close to Beijing have obtained obvious effect of industrial structure optimization,and the cities close to Tianjin have obtained obvious effect of economic growth.Cities around Beijing and Tianjin are significantly better than cities in southern Hebei in terms of air quality improvement.In the future,we need to view this policy with a new concept of high-quality development,scientifically promote the industrial transfer and undertaking within the urban agglomeration,and continuously consolidate the basic conditions for economic development of Hebei.It is also necessary to achieve spatial equity and adapt to local conditions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordination.