基于变权理论的综合能源系统低碳综合评估

Integrated Low-carbon Comprehensive Assessment of Integrated Energy Systems Based on Variable-weight Theory

在综合能源系统低碳化建设过程中,如何准确分析系统的低碳化水平、确定系统低碳发展潜力的影响因素是一个难点。为此,提出基于混合变权理论的综合能源系统低碳综合评估方法。首先,考虑当前智能电网的发展,提出包含碳捕集和需求响应技术的低碳综合评估体系,并应用Pearson系数对体系内各指标进行相关性分析,根据多维度指标状态值的优劣等级,采用混合变权原理改进的主客观组合赋权方法更新指标权重;其次,建立基于混合变权的逼近理想解排序法(technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution,TOPSIS)模型,综合评估系统低碳化水平以及低碳发展潜力的影响因素,为寻求减碳路径、实现系统低碳化建设提供更为科学、客观的依据;最后选取新疆北部地区的综合能源系统数据进行算例分析,验证所提方法的正确性。

In the process of low-carbon construction of integrated energy systems,the analysis of the system s low-carbon level and the determination of factors influencing the system s low-carbon development potential are considered to be a challenge.Therefore,a comprehensive low-carbon assessment method for integrated energy systems based on the hybrid variable-rights theory was proposed.Firstly,the current development of smart grid was taken into account,and a low-carbon integrated assessment system including carbon capture and demand response technologies was also proposed.Pearson coefficients were utilized to conduct correlation analysis of the indicators within the system.The weights of the indicators were updated using a subjective and objective combination assignment method improved by the hybrid variable weight principle,taking into consideration the ranking of the multi-dimensional indicator state values.Secondly,a technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution(TOPSIS)model based on hybrid variable weights was established to comprehensively assess the influencing factors of the system s low-carbon level and low-carbon development potential,providing a more scientific and objective basis for seeking carbon reduction paths and achieving the construction of the system s decarbonization.Finally,the data of the integrated energy system in the northern region of Xinjiang were selected for arithmetic analysis to verify the correctness of the proposed method.