基于因果推理的机场网络延误传播分析

Analysis of Airport Network Delay Propagation Based on Causal Inference

随着航空运输的快速发展,航班延误问题日益严重,已成为制约我国民航发展的重要瓶颈之一。为了更好地理解航班延误传播机理,从延误传播本质出发,采用收敛交叉映射的因果推理方法检验各机场在延误传播过程中的因果关系,并定义延误因果指数,构建延误因果时空网络,基于复杂网络理论分析网络特性。选取2019年7月的国内航班运行数据进行验证,实验结果表明,每个机场影响或受21个机场影响,意味着航空运输系统存在广泛的延误传播关系,特别是中小机场之间存在的因果关系更强,因此在注重大型国际枢纽机场航班延误治理的同时,也不能忽视中小机场延误治理能力的提高。

With the rapid development of air transport,the problem of flight delays has become increasingly serious,which has become one of the important bottlenecks restricting the development of China's civil aviation.In order to better understand the propagation mechanism of flight delay,starting from the essence of delay propagation,the convergent cross-mapping is used to test the causal relationship between airports in the process of delay propagation,the delay causal index is defined,the delay causal spatiotemporal network is constructed,and the network characteristics are analyzed based on the complex network theory.Domestic flight operation data of July 2019 was selected for verification,the experimental results show that each airport affects or is affected by 21 airports,which means that there is a wide delay propagation relationship in the air transport system,especially the causal relationships between small and medium-sized airports are stronger,so while paying attention to the flight delay governance of large international hub airports,we cannot ignore the improvement of the delay management capacity of small and medium-sized airports.